The Atlanta Hawks have a star power forward making the leap right before their eyes as Jalen Johnson continues to dazzle and make his case for an All-Star nod. Their last "star" at power forward, John Collins, is floundering on his latest team -- a bittersweet reality for Hawks fans who both loved and hated the polarizing big man.
Collins was a draft day find for the Hawks, a double-double machine who outplayed his draft slot and put up big numbers for the franchise. He also was often marginalized by Atlanta's coaches and asked to fill roles that didn't best fit his skillset. Early on he was the fan favorite who deserved more playing time; after he got paid, he was the ill-fitting piece that needed to be sent away.
After years on the trade block, he was finally dealt, his contract dumped on the rebuilding Utah Jazz for free. There he spent two seasons outside of the spotlight, putting up solid numbers on a team without many other mouths to feed and where his inconsistent effort on defense would go unnoticed and trick another team into believing in him as a winning player.
That happened this summer, when the Los Angeles Clippers flipped Norman Powell for him, believing that signing Bradley Beal and adding Collins was better than keeping Powell. As Powell lights it up for the Miami Heat and Beal was terrible before suffering a season-ending injury, the pressure is on Collins to redeem the deal for the Clippers.
John Collins is struggling out west
That has not been happening. By most advanced metrics, John Collins is one of the 25-worst players in the NBA. The 28-year-old power forward is playing 27 minutes per game, alternating between starting at the 4 next to Ivica Zubac and coming off the bench.
In those minutes his production is down across the board. He is scoring less and less efficiently, with his 3-point accuracy tanking down to 33.3 percent (it was 38.2 percent in Utah) even while he is taking more of his shots from beyond the arc than from around the basket. Saturday night was his best game with the Clippers as he scored 21 points; that the onetime 20-10 machine didn't manage the feat in any of his previous 19 games highlights that he doesn't have the impact the Clippers had hoped for.
The rest of his game isn't helping. His rebounding is down; it may still be his "best" skill but it isn't an elite one any longer. Defensively he has struggled to be an impact player despite his athleticism and size. Never one to make the extra pass, he has 31 turnovers to just 11 assists on the season.
That is why most all-in-one advanced metrics have Collins near the bottom of the league: he is playing poorly on both offense and defense. ESPN's Net Poiints says he has cost the Clippers 31 points off their net rating this season, the worst player on the team. That ranks 16th-worst in the entire NBA, behind mostly rookies and Sacramento Kings. Box Plus-Minus puts him 11th-worst, and 8th-worst when you factor in playing time.
There isn't much of a path to recovery, either. He isn't getting any younger, and his athleticism will only continue to decline. The Clippers are in a death spiral, and even if they do try to pivot and make a trade to recover, it will likely involve Collins being dumped somewhere that isn't trying to give him a major role. The Clippers have, and he has fallen flat on his face.
There may still be hope for Collins and his career, but the path forward is not clear. If he cannot recover, he might be looking for a minimum contract next summer.