Last season, Nickeil Alexander-Walker finished No. 6 in Sixth Man of the Year voting with the Minnesota Timberwolves. This year, in his first with the Atlanta Hawks, Alexander-Walker will likely have a larger role, serving as a de facto sixth starter. That boost in responsibility will lead to a boost in production, which will lead to a boost in attention from award voters.
Trae Young and Dyson Daniels are the presumed backcourt starters for the Hawks, but after those two, the team doesn't have loads of reliable ball-handling. I recently wrote about how NAW will be tasked with more on-ball work, and even though it's not a role he's used to, it could do him some big favors with the voters.
The NBA Sixth Man of the Year is almost always someone who helps run their team's offense when they're on the floor. Payton Pritchard, Malcolm Brogdon, and Tyler Herro have all won the award in the past five years. Alexander-Walker doesn't play the exact same position as all of them, but if he can increase his scoring load while still being a standout on defense, he'll be squarely in the conversation throughout the season. Folks like it when players have the ball in their hands, as it makes their impact easier to recognize.
NAW's competition for 6MOY
Standing in the way between NAW and 6MOY are a lot of the usual suspects; Jordan Clarkson in his first year with the Knicks, Naz Reid, Payton Pritchard, De'Andre Hunter, and Ty Jerome are the most realistic players at this ball.
But Alexander-Walker has the best potential combination of positive factors going his way in 2025-26; he'll have an expanded role, his counting stats will be higher than ever before (specifically scoring), he plays in a big market, and his team should improve greatly in large part because of him. Most of the 6MOY contenders have one or two of those elements going for them — NAW might have the perfect storm.
What kind of statline would win NAW 6MOY?
Even though Payton Pritchard doesn't have a similar play style to Alexander-Walker, they could have a similar 6MOY path. The year before Pritchard won the award, he averaged 9.6 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 3.4 assists. He increased that line to 14.3 / 3.8 / 3.5 last season, and his three-point shooting jumped from 38.5 percent to 40.7 percent, too.
Last season, Alexander-Walker averaged 9.4 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game — nearly identical to Pritchard's 2023-24 line.
Of course, all 6MOY winners aren't created equal. But if Nickeil Alexander-Walker averages around 13 points per game this year, keeps his efficiency steady (or increases it a tad), plays every game for the Hawks, and contributes to winning on a nightly basis, he will quickly become a real threat to take home the John Havlicek trophy.