Former 1st-round pick called Hawks 'biggest X-factor' rest of season

The Atlanta Hawks returned from the All-Star break and suffered a loss to the Orlando Magic that featured some all-too-familiar tendencies. However, this season is as much about the future as the present for the Hawks, and Onyeka Okongwu is part of that plan (for now, at least).

Atlanta is 4-11 with Okongwu as a starter this season, though the big man has posted a positive plus-minus in eight of the 15 games, including the last four outings.

Bleacher Report’s Brad Gagnon called Okongwu their “biggest X factor” the rest of the way.

‘With stellar production since taking over staring center duties from Clint Capela, 24-year-old Onyeka Okongwu will be key to the Atlanta Hawks offsetting major offensive losses,” Hughes wrote on February 22.

“De’Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanović departed at the trade deadline, and Jalen Johnson is out for the season with a shoulder injury. Trae Young is still an offense unto himself, and new addition Caris LeVert will help. But Okongwu's 13.6 points per game since joining the first unit need to represent his floor going forward.”

“Most critically, the mobile big man can be a swing factor as a spacer. Though he's shooting just 26.6 percent from deep on the year, Okongwu is canning 28.0 percent as a starter and has shown an increasing willingness to let it fly from deep,” Hughes wrote.

“With so many shooting threats gone, his potential from deep could determine Atlanta's offensive ceiling.”

The true questions for Okongwu lie on defense.

Onyeka Okongwu must improved defensively to reach next level for Hawks

Okongwu boasts the third-best on-off differential among all Hawks players with at least 1,000 minutes played for the team, per Cleaning The Glass. He trails only Jalen Johnson, who is out for the season, and four-time All-Star Trae Young.

However, while Okongwu is also third among that same group in offensive differential, he is equally as bad on the defensive end.

The good news is that he is still in the black in that regard.

But the Hawks must determine if Okongwu can hold up against the tougher matchups long-term, especially in the postseason. The only way they can determine the latter is by making the playoffs. 

They gave themselves a headstart on the former, switching from Clint Capela to Okongwu in the starting lineup.

Capela is on an expiring two-year, $46 million contract.

Conversely, Okongwu is in Year 1 of a $61.9 million pact. That long-term investment needs to pay off or the Hawks need to move on before word gets out that it did not work. So far, so good, as Okongwu has expanded his game and impact steadily over the past two seasons.

The real changes to the Hawks’ roster will come in the offseason. What side of the ledger Okongwu ultimately falls on – stay or go – could depend on the next 26 games.