New seasons breed optimism and the Atlanta Hawks are no different, with players like Trae Young and Larry Nance Jr. espousing their faith that they can surprise some with their performance in the upcoming campaign.
Projections for the Hawks to again be a Play-In Tournament team offer harsh reality checks amid that enthusiasm.
And there is good reason for the skepticism.
The Hawks traded Dejounte Murray to the New Orleans Pelicans, lost Saddiq Bey to the Washington Wizards, and their best offensive addition was a rookie in No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher.
Their biggest concern, though, should be letdowns from players they are set to count on and there are several candidates on the roster.
Here are the three biggest candidates with their 2023-24 stat lines.
Clint Capela – 11.5 PPG/10.6 RPG/1.5 BPG/1.2 APG – .621/.000/.545
Starting center Clint Capela has been a staple of the current core and is one of the few remaining members of the 2020-21 run to the Eastern Conference Finals.
The former rebounding champion has been an anchor for the Hawks defensively and a reliable finisher on the other end of Trae Young’s lobs since arriving via trade in 2020. But that latter part has slipped some last year.
One year after posting a career-high 65.3% field goal percentage, Capela posted a 57.1% mark.
That was the second-lowest mark of his 10-year career. And while that can surely be attributed at least in part to Young’s finger injury that cost him 10 games, there are other factors that could make the Hawks regret not flipping Capela over the offseason.
He turned 30 years old in May and has a history of knee injuries, though his 73 appearances in 2023-24 were the third-most of his career.
Capela is also in the final year of a two-year, $46 million contract.
The gamble for the Hawks is that they do not have a proven adequate replacement for Capela in the starting lineup. His top backup, Onyeka Okongwu, would unlock a more switchable defense and expand the offense with his increased and still-improving range.
However, Okongwu is undersized at 6-foot-8 while the only player on the roster that is taller is reserve center Cody Zeller.
The Hawks have been an undersized group for years.
Moving on from Capela at this point might not seem feasible in that context. Holding on to him could prove even more costly simply due to diminishing returns and the possibility that he walks for nothing in unrestricted free agency in 2025.