The NBA is set to expand and the Atlanta Hawks could look to take advantage if they play their cards right.
NBA commissioner Adam Silver has not provided a specific timeline for inception, but he has left the door open and said the topic would be discussed at some point during the 2024-25 calendar season.
ESPN senior writers report the 2027-28 campaign is an increasingly realistic target.
They do not rule out 2026-27 but noted that league sources indicate the following season is a more realistic timeframe.
While the motivation for such a move is largely financial, there are basketball-related issues.
Teams were allowed to protect eight players in 2004 when the Charlotte Bobcats entered the league. Here are three players the Hawks would be wise to protect when the actual expansion draft happens and two they should expose.
Hawks must protect Zaccharie Risacher from expansion draft
If the 2027-28 season is the target date, then the 2027 offseason is when the Hawks have to worry. The Hawks have three players under contract as of September 18, including 2024 NBA Draft No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher. He would also qualify if a draft happened today.
A 6-foot-10 (in shoes) wing who projects to fit in anywhere from 2-4 on the court, at least in the early portion of his career, Risacher profiles as a fit in any situation.
Even if his ceiling is not a star, he would be highly coveted in a situation like this.
Risacher looked good in limited action during NBA 2K25 Summer League in Las Vegas. But his time was cut short with a quad injury. He has since been in the gym, appearing to put on good mass ahead of his rookie campaign.
He profiles as a good fit alongside Trae Young now with his positional versatility and defensive potential.
Risacher also projects as a solid supporting cast member for the Hawks’ next star, if it’s not him.
Backup center and former No. 6 overall pick Onyeka Okongwu and veteran reserve Vit Krejci are both also under contract. However, neither player should take priority over the incoming No. 1 pick of the draft.
Hawks should expose Onyeka Okongwu to expansion draft
While it is unlikely the Hawks would expose Okongwu if a draft happened today, he is one of the few Hawks who will be under contract when ESPN’s NBA insiders believe an expansion draft would take place.
He will notably be in the final year of his four-year, $61.9 million contract and just hitting his prime at 27 years old. The problem the Hawks could face is if his size proves to be a hindrance to him being a starting-level center.
Okongwu has improved his jumpshot to the point of being a viable option at 4.
It would be a stretch to say that he could be a starter at power forward, which is also the same position that Johnson fits best.
The Hawks – and several other outlets – list Okongwu at 6-foot-10. But those in the know challenge that listing. He has previously been listed at 6-foot-8 and the new height would put him on par with Capela.
Capela is still undersized, but only against the top bigs in the league in the modern NBA.
If the Hawks feel Okongwu’s 7-foot-2 wingspan will make up for the (potential) height deficiency, then it makes sense to re-up with Okongwu.
Otherwise, they could expose him to the draft – again, a seemingly unlikely scenario at this juncture – and let one of the new franchises take him off their hands. That new team would be getting an active and versatile frontcourt player, even if he lacks a true positional home.
Hawks must protect Jalen Johnson, which means…
The Hawks have to sort out Johnson’s contract situation. He is in the final year of his rookie deal and will be a restricted free agent in 2025, assuming the Hawks extend him a qualifying offer.
There has been little concern about a deal not getting done despite estimates ranging from $125 million to $150 million over four years. Johnson was a legitimate candidate for Most Improved Player of the Year in 2023-24 before injuries set in.
Extending – or re-signing, if it comes to that – Johnson should be a no-brainer.
So should protecting him from an expansion draft after that. He has delivered on his pre-draft potential as a dynamic playmaking forward.
More importantly, he has disproven concerns about his work ethic.
That is a developmental success for the Hawks and something organizations should build around and promote when wooing star players. If Risacher and Johnson are not the stars, they are appealing running mates.
The No. 20 overall pick in 2021, Johnson’s biggest hurdle is durability. If he can stay on the floor, there is no reason to believe he won’t be worth the money he is expected to receive.
He was playing like the team’s second-best player before injuries hit.
And his previous growth shows what he an do when not a planned part of the starting lineup. He is a focal point of the offense this season, and the Hawks have to treat him as such both in the offense and financially.
Would Hawks let Kobe Bufkin hit expansion draft?
The Hawks selected Kobe Bufkin with the No. 15 overall pick of the 2023 draft. He flashed the same kind of two-way versatility that made him an appealing prospect coming out of college.
However, he has also shown some of the same flaws, most notably with his shooting.
Bufkin shot 35.5% from beyond the arc in his final season at Michigan after shooting 22.2% in his first season. That is a notable improvement despite still falling below an ideal mark for a guard.
Bufkin shot 22.5% from deep as a rookie, averaging 2.4 attempts across his 17 appearances in 2023-24.
He has also battled through durability issues.
Thumb and toe injuries hindered him during his rookie campaign. A shoulder injury suffered on the eve of summer league practice wiped out his second exhibition slate. But Bufkin has shown well at the G League and summer levels.
He also provides nice length at 6-foot-4 with a 6-foot-7-plus wingspan, hinting at his defensive potential. But the Hawks acquired Dyson Daniels in the Dejounte Murray trade.
Daniels provides all that Bufkin does right now and is two inches taller.
The Hawks have a history of extending their youngsters, so Bufkin could be on a new deal by the time an actual draft would occur. But that could be more reason for the Hawks to expose him to a new team via expansion draft, potentially avoiding a reoccurring injury risk.
Vit Krejci's versatility should keep him out of an expansion draft
Krejci is four years older than Bufkin and arrived via trade rather than the draft, becoming a useful part of the rotation in 2023-24 by happenstance. Now that he is here, the Hawks should do what it takes to keep him.
He is in Year 1 of a four-year, $10.2 million pact and has a club option for the final season in 2027.
The Hawks could exercise their option if they wanted to move him rather than expose him.
Neither option should be on the table with Krejci profiling as a useful piece now who could fit nicely as a role player when the Hawks prove themselves competitors in the East again, which could be this coming season if Young is right.
Hawks: A potential timeline for NBA Expansion Draft
Young’s absence from this list is partly due to his being an unrestricted free agent in 2027-28. But it is also because the Hawks should unquestionably protect him if a draft occurs before his contract runs out, like ahead of the 2026-27 season as ESPN’s insiders report is possible.
Even if the Hawks are unsure they can win at the highest level with Young as the centerpiece, letting him walk (or be drafted) for nothing would be the worst decision.
Fortunately for the Hawks, they are unlikely to face that decision any time soon.