Hawks: Analyst sets 'realistic' expectations for Jalen Johnson's potential extension

This is a big season for Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson.

Coming off a season that saw his Most Improved Player candidacy undercut by injuries, the former No. 20 overall pick is primed to pick up where he left off before his nagging ankle issue popped up.

That is good news for Johnson, who is also in the final year of his rookie contract with restricted free agency on the horizon in the 2025 offseason.

Bleacher Report’s Eric Pincus outlined a “reasonable ceiling” in assessing Johnson’s value.

“While Johnson and the Hawks haven't done much winning in recent years, he's emerged as a young piece to build around. Competing executives are intrigued but expect him to stay with the Hawks on a lucrative new deal,” Pincus wrote on September 17.

“Even though very few teams have spending power in 2025, Johnson is likely to lock in a healthy deal in Atlanta before the season.”

The note about rival executives being intrigued is not a new revelation.

“In asking several competing executives about the 2021 draft class, Jalen Johnson's name came up as one they're watching closely, with his combination of size (6'9") and skill,” Pincus wrote on August 30. “The Atlanta Hawks are expected, however, to retain him.”

That the Hawks would have the right of first refusal if a rival signed Johnson to an offer sheet in restricted free agency is key. 

That is if they even let it get to that point.

Insider: Jalen Johnson looking to cash in on next Hawks contract

“[A max contract extension], according to my information, is what Jalen Johnson is hoping for with the Hawks in his extension, and what Klutch Sports should be asking for as well. That's just what good agenting is,” Fischer said on the “No Cap Room” podcast on August 7.

“The Hawks made basically everyone available for trade since February besides him. So, of course, you're going to be thinking, ‘Well, then pay me that way.’ But the guy has had his own injury history, hasn't put together a full season yet. For all the promise that made me want to fly down to Atlanta and profile him … it's going to be a prove-it year in terms of dollar figure for him as well.”

The Hawks have a history of extending their first-round draft picks, even if it eventually leads to a trade down the line.

It stands to reason that Johnson would be the next in line to follow suit.

They did it with John Collins and Kevin Huerter, both of whom were traded. De’Andre Hunter got one too, though he has also ended up in trade speculation. Onyeka Okongwu is the most recent and, while he has avoided direct speculation, he is rarely if ever mentioned as “untouchable.”

Johnson’s place in the pecking order was enhanced by the trade sending Dejounte Murray to the New Orleans Pelicans.

The Hawks have big plans for him and rookie No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher.

“I know a lot of people said, ‘Are they gonna re-sign Johnson? They have Zaccharie Risacher.’” Spotrac’s Keith Smith said on the “Game Theory Podcast” on September 12. “Well, everything I'm hearing is – and I’m curious if you have heard the same thing – they're like, ‘Hey, we're kind of viewing the 2, 3, and maybe even the 4 is all kind of interchangeable for us. We plan to play them all together.”

The two could be Risacher – with Hunter keeping his starting small forward spot – or Murray trade acquisition Dyson Daniels, whose defensive game seems like a perfect complement to Young’s offensive prowess on paper.