Hawks' plan for 2024-25 could easily turn into 'worst nightmare' scenario

A small step back for the Atlanta Hawks in 2024-25 could lead to a significant leap forward in 2025-26. That is still one year away, though, and the Hawks’ immediate outlook is not exactly rosy.

There is an expectation they will again be fighting for a Play-In Tournament spot. 

Whether or not that is an acceptable outcome for the Hawks likely depends on who is answering the question.

“Let's split the difference and assume they again hover around the bottom of the middle. Cold, hard logic dictates they view their outbound first-rounders as a sunk cost and rechart their direction anyway. That's a lot easier to do if you have someone on the roster who nets a bounty on the trade market themselves,” Bleacher Report’s Dan Favale wrote on September 18.

“Perhaps the Hawks are better than expected. The Dejounte Murray trade rebalanced part of the rotation, increased lineup optionality and gave the front office a couple of other teams' first-rounders to use in prospective deals. But Atlanta's outlook won't appear nearly as flexible, let alone encouraging, if it stays on its treadmill of mediocrity—a status quo without a clear ramp from which to exit.

Favale says staying where they are would be the “worst nightmare” for Hawks fans.

However, the inverse can also be argued even with many espousing sentiments along the same lines as Favale.

There is a belief that they are less talented due to losing an All-Star in Murray and not replacing him with one. But finishing in a similar position as last season despite that could be viewed as a win organizationally.

The promise of the younger Hawks’ players continuing to ascend is also encouraging.

Hawks not looking to mail it in this season

The Hawks are looking to compete this season, which explains their decision to keep Clint Capela in the Murray trade despite the New Orleans Pelicans’ need and interest in him.

Larry Nance Jr. part of the return from that trade, said they are looking to surprise.

“If you look at the East, we got a number amount of teams that aren't looking to make the playoffs or care more about their draft stock than wins, and we're not one of those teams,” Nance told the panel of “The Hoop Collective” podcast on September 12. “So, hopefully, if we do what we're supposed to do, we'll snag an 8-seed, snag a 7-seed, surprise some people.”

Nance has drawn trade interest but figures to provide a versatile veteran presence in the frontcourt if he remains with the team. The Hawks have the buy-in from their star to justify keeping veterans on the roster.

“I want to get back to where I've been,” Young said on the “Million Dollars Worth of Game” podcast episode that aired on September 8. “A lot of people look at our roster and don't have a lot of high expectations, so that's sometimes good for a player like me who's been built on beating expectations his whole life. 

“I'm just ready to play and beat expectations and whatever that ends up being, I'm going to be ready for it and excited for it.”

Young has lamented his lack of playoff success beyond the 2020-2 Eastern Conference Finals.

Few are predicting this group to be the ones to get him back on the upward trajectory he and the Hawks were on just a few seasons ago. But they have the buy in and upside to surprise their fair share of opponents.

Doing that enough times during the season can lead to the playoffs, even if they have to go through the Play-In Tournament again to do it.