Atlanta Hawks star Trae Young will miss roughly the next month at least with a surgical procedure for his pinky scheduled for February 27.
The Hawks need several players to step up in his absence.
They have a better net efficiency differential without him on the floor than with him, per Cleaning The Glass. But that is largely skewed by his struggles earlier in the season, some of which came while playing in injury-riddled lineups himself.
The games have shown a team that often looks rudderless on offense without the three-time All-Star at the helm.
Their win over the Orlando Magic was the blueprint, however.
As one might imagine, Dejounte Murray has to be at the top of the pecking order for the offense can be successful while Young is on the shelf. Murray finished the 109-92 victory one rebound short of a triple-double.
Dejounte Murray has to return to 2021-22 Spurs form for Hawks
Murray had 25 points, 11 assists, nine rebounds, and two steals. He also connected on two of his four looks from beyond the arc.
It’s the fourth time this season that Murray has dished out 10-plus assists.
The Hawks have gone undefeated in those games, while three of them have come without Young in the lineup. And Murray, whose lone All-Star appearance came as a point guard with the San Antonio Spurs, has proven more than capable of directing an offense.
Murray averaged fewer points that season than he is this year, but he also dished out 9.2 assists per game.
Young, the preternatural passer that he is, is averaging 10.8 assists per game.
If the Hawks can get that version of Murray without Young, they could do more than tread water without the latter. They already boast a strong net efficiency differential with Murray running the point.
If nothing else, their decision to hold onto the former steals champion at the trade deadline is proving almost prescient. This is why he was brought in.
It can’t just be Murray who steps up, though.
Jalen Johnson has to find another gear for Hawks
Third-year forward Jalen Johnson is already a bona fide Most Improved Player candidate, nearly tripling his scoring, assists, and steals and doubling his rebounding production over last season.
Johnson is averaging 15.7 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.2 steals, proving to be a vital part of the team’s success.
The Hawks went 4-10 while he was sidelined with a wrist injury.
“Jalen Johnson has been their third best player this year behind Trae Young and Dejounte Murray,” an anonymous rival executive said, per Michael Scotto of HoopsHype on November 29.
Lineups with Johnson on and Young off have also seen positive regression versus when they share the floor.
The ideal version of the Hawks is all three of Young, Murray, and Johnson making plays.
That is not always easy with one basketball, and Johnsonson could very well benefit from having even more on-ball reps. His playmaking was arguably his most promising skill coming out of college.
With Young out, the Hawks need Johnson to regain his groove from beyond the arc. He is shooting a career-high 34.5% from beyond the arc – 35.1% on catch-and-shoot looks.
But he is shooting 14.3% on threes over the last four games.
The good news is that he went 2-for-5 from deep in the win over the Magic. Additionally, his size and ability to get downhill are going to be key. Atlanta was minus-1 in second-chance points versus Orlando, but still managed to be plus-8 in paint points.
He was shooting 36.6% on the season before this recent slump. So he has it in him to pick it up, and the Hawks need it more than ever.
Bogdan Bogdanovic’s has to stay hot for Hawks
Bogdan Bogdanovic’s 16.9 points and 1.3 steals per game this season are both highs for his Hawks career. His scoring output comes from volume, with Bogdanovic posting career-highs in field goal attempts and attempts from downtown.
His efficiency is down, though.
His 42.9% field goal percentage is the second-worst of his career, and his 37.3% mark from three is closer to being his third-worst mark (37.2%) than his third-best (39.2%).
However, unlike Johnson, who only started to show signs of a turnaround in the last contest, Bogdanovic has already been on an upward trend for some time. He is averaging 17.1 points and knocking down 40.4% (for the A) of his deep looks over the last 14 games.
The Hawks are 5-4 in games that Bogdanovic has started this season.
They are 41-31 with him as a starter during his tenure in Atlanta, providing even more optimism that the Hawks can successfully navigate this stretch without Young.
There are two potential big-picture drawbacks, though. The first is Bogdanovic’s health. Following years of knee issues, the Hawks must be careful not to overtax the 31-year-old swingman.
He has been healthy this season, missing just two contests all year.
But he has dealt with knee injuries in the past and is coming off an extended run in the FIBA World Cup last summer.
It won’t be easy – Bogdanovic is one of the team’s best shooters. He is also an underrated playmaker and driver, which the Hawks lack with consistency in many other spots. Keeping him healthy enough to be on the floor is the only way any of that will matter, though.
Kobe Bufkin has to let the game come to him with Hawks
Rookie first-round pick Kobe Bufkin has made the most of his opportunities in the G League after a slow start to his rookie campaign due to injury. He is averaging 23.6 points, 5.9 assists, 5.4 rebounds, and 1.3 steals in 14 appearances with the College Park Skyhawks.
The 6-foot-4 guard has not put up big numbers with the Hawks just yet, logging season-highs of three points, three assists, and three rebounds on the year.
He profiles as more of a sub for Murray and even a potential replacement amid trade rumors.
But the Hawks got to see what he and Murray look like in the same backcourt, with the duo logging 19 possessions together. In two lineup iterations, the Hawks have posted a minus-1.2 net efficiency differential in those minutes.
That is too small of a sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions from. If nothing else, it gives them an extremely athletic and defensively active pairing.
Bufkin also pairs well with Bogdanovic who is not the stoutest defender.
The Hawks would be wise to mix in heavy doses of veteran Patty Mills, and even Trent Forrest if they ever resolve his contract situation. But it also makes a lot of sense to get Bufkin as much exposure as possible.
He is a long-term piece of the puzzle and, while the Hawks may not admit it or even feel that way, expectations are lower without Young in the mix.
There is enough skill around to keep him from feeling as though he has to do any heavy lifting.
Quin Snyder has to direct the Hawks from the sideline
To say that things have not gone as expected under Snyder would be an understatement. He took over a team that was 31-30 at the time. They have gone 35-43 since, including their 25-32 mark this season.
Murray and Young have long bought into what Snyder is preaching, even if it hasn’t always come to fruition.
The relationship displayed between the trio last offseason was a key reason for optimism.
“Bringing Quin in halfway [through the season], I think, is a game changer for us,” Trae Young said on the debut episode of the ‘From The Point’ podcast on June 1. “Just from what he brings like his mental and just him being a real teacher….He teaches everybody. From the coaches to the players all day, and he’s always talking during practices.”
Snyder was also key in the Hawks holding on to Murray at this year’s trade deadline, per reports.
He has to navigate murky waters without his All-Star point guard on the floor. The Hawks are a three-point-heavy team. It makes more sense to lean into a drive-and-kick approach without Young’s creation – both for himself and others – available.
Even if Murray steps up, and Bogdanovic and Bufkin both do their part as well, the Hawks’ offense will look different than it has for most of the season.
And opponents will also defend them differently knowing just that.
The Hawks need the best version of Snyder just as much as any player – De’Andre Hunter, Clint Capela, or Saddiq Bey – if not more. What’s more, his real test may ultimately come when Young returns if the Hawks show anything while the latter is out.