2 benchmarks that could earn Trae Young MVP consideration in 2024-25

Trae Young is a three-time All-Star and was an All-NBA selection in 2021-22.

Despite individual accolades, the Atlanta Hawks star has lamented the lack of team success outside of their run to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2021. 

The way these Hawks are set up, the team’s success will be invariably tied to Young’s performances on a nightly basis. As such, the projections for the 2024-25 MVP race hold a little more weight than in recent seasons past.

Young is a long shot at +25000, the 23rd-best odds, per FanDuel Sportsbook.

“Trae Young is poised to put up monster numbers,” Bleacher Report’s Greg Swartz wrote on August 19. 

“The three-time All-Star averaged 28.4 points per game and made the All-NBA third team the year before the Hawks acquired [Dejounte] Murray. There's no reason to believe that Young won't be among the league's leading scorers once again.”

Murray was honest about the difficulties of pairing two point guards by trade on the court.

Young’s usage rate reached as high as 34.9% in the three seasons before Murray arrived in 2022, per Basketball Reference.

It never fell below 33% in that span and never reached that threshold during Murray’s short tenure. That heliocentric style of play was viewed as detrimental since it allowed defenses to shut down one player to stop the Hawks’ offense, leading to the trade for Murray.

It also led to the Hawks’ best finish in the Young era and appears primed to make a comeback.

Trae Young primed to post big numbers in 2024-25

“For Atlanta to have a chance to win most nights, more offensive pressure will fall on Young both as a scorer and as a creator,” Swartz wrote.

“Only three players in NBA history have averaged at least 30 points and 10 assists per game: Russell Westbrook, Tiny Archibald and Oscar Robertson. If Young becomes the fourth this season, that could push him into the MVP mix.”

Four players averaged at least 30 points in 2023-24.

Two of them were big men Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid. The other two, however, were ball-dominant guards Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Antetokounmpo, Doncic, and Gilgeous Alexander all ranked in the top three in usage rate in 2023-24.

Young has averaged more than 10.0 assists per game over the past two seasons and has already set a goal of matching his No. 11 jersey in 2024-25.

More of the same seems in order as long as his teammates can hit the shots.

That is likely the biggest hindrance to Young achieving the 30-10 mark Swartz believes could help him garner MVP consideration. He is a known commodity at this point in his career. The rest of the roster is much less so.

Bogdan Bogdanovic and Jalen Johnson are the only other two sources of consistent offense among the group.

Bogdanovic is 32 years old and Johnson dealt with nagging injuries in 2023-24.

Team success - just three players have ever won MVP with fewer than 50 wins - health and teammates’ shot-making all pose greater threats to Young’s candidacy than his numbers with his career highs of 29.6 points (2019-20) and 10.8 assists (2023-24) underscoring his potential.