The Atlanta Hawks’ trade sending Dejounte Murray to the New Orleans Pelicans has received mixed reviews. For every compliment to the Hawks’ front office getting a pair of first-round picks and a recent first-rounder in Dyson Daniels, there are notes on how little else the Hawks have done.
There is a strong case to be made for addition by subtraction, though.
Even with Murray coming off a strong individual season, his exit could pave the way for several Hawks players to establish (and even re-establish) themselves on the Hawks and in the NBA.
Trae Young led more potent Hawks attack without Dejounte Murray
One of the overarching numbers from the Hawks’ former star backcourt has come up often to justify splitting them up. The Hawks had a minus-6.3 net efficiency differential when both were on the floor last season, per Cleaning The Glass.
It is worth noting that the Hawks had a plus-1.6 differential with their once-dynamic duo on the floor together for a significantly larger sample size in 2022-23.
More importantly in light of the trade, their differential was better with Young alone than Murray.
The Hawks had a plus-3.1 net differential when Young was on the court without Murray last season. Their differential with Murray and no Young was plus-0.8, though that was also in more than double the possessions.
That trend was more pronounced during the 2022-23 season. Hawks’ lineups with Young and no Murray fared far better (plus-3.8) than those with Murray and no Young (minus-6.0).
Two years’ worth of data suggests the Hawks made the right decision on who to part with.
Young has posted his second and third least-efficient seasons as a scorer over the last two seasons, posting a 57.3% true shooting mark in 2022-23 and a 58.5% mark in 2023-24. His most efficient season was 2021-22 (60.3%), the year before Murray’s arrival.
Defensive concerns about Young are also valid given his relatively slight stature. But the Hawks’ defensive differential was better when the three-time All-Star was on the floor without his former teammate (119.1) than when they played together (123.0).
Their offensive rating improved too. However, that may be the Hawks’ greatest area of concern following the deal to move Murray.
Young was hounded in the 2021-22 postseason as the lone creator for the offense.
The Miami Heat’s defensive effort in their first-round series that season was a key factor in the Hawks’ decision to trade for Murray, a move both he and Young wanted. With Murray gone, the Hawks risk falling back to square one.
Jalen Johnson primed for true breakout season after Hawks’ Dejounte Murray trade
The most discouraging number of the Murray-Young backcourt was their production with 2021 first-round pick Jalen Johnson. By all accounts, Johnson is one of two players considered off-limits in trade talks. Rookie No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher was the other.
Johnson received limited playing time under former Hawks head coach Nate McMillan.
He was a legitimate contender for Most Improved Player in his first season under fellow former Duke Blue Devil and current Hawks head coach Quin Snyder.
Johnson averaged 16.0 points, 8.7 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.2 steals last season. His 35.5% mark from beyond the arc was a career-high. It also belies his progress after his first two seasons (28.2% combined).
However, the Hawks had a minus-8.4 net differential with Johnson, Murray, and Young together.
They had a plus-1.4 differential when Johnson was on the floor with Murray but without Young and plus-3.7 when the backcourt flipped.
The biggest factor in Johnson’s continued development will be his health. He made 56 appearances last season, knocking him out of contention for season awards like MIP and interrupting the strides he was making during the campaign.
Johnson suffered a wrist injury on a hard foul by Washington Wizards forward Kyle Kuzma.
He also dealt with a nagging ankle injury that knocked him out for two separate stints last season. Johnson said he was considering switching shoes to address the issue.
He previously wore the signature shoe of fellow Klutch Sports client and offseason training partner LeBron James. If that – plus a continued focus on nutrition – helps keep Johnson on the floor next season, he could enjoy a true breakout campaign.
Johnson is also in line for an extension; a little additional incentive for the versatile forward.
Kobe Bufkin could take 1st leap with Hawks this season
Johnson is not the only youngster who stands to benefit from Murray’s departure. 2023 first-rounder Kobe Bufkin could be in line to absorb a significant chunk of the 2021-22 All-Star’s vacated 35-plus minutes per game.
Bogdan Bogdanovic has been named in some trade speculation. But he also already plays 30-plus minutes per game and has some injury concerns entering his age-32 season.
Bogdanovic’s similar spits as a starter and reserve underscore how valuable he is.
Bufkin, though, has already flashed his defensive chops and a willingness to be aggressive on offense in an injury-truncated rookie season. He averaged 4.8 points, 1.9 rebounds, and 1.6 assists while shooting 22.5% from deep in 17 appearances last season
He averaged 23.6 points, 5.9 assists, 5.4 rebounds, and 1.3 steals while shooting 35.6% from downtown in 14 appearances with the College Park Skyhawks.
Bufkin was the No. 16 overall pick of his class, so there is reason to hope/expect progress.
His three-point shooting could limit his ceiling. He shot 35.5% in his final collegiate season. But lineups featuring him and incoming trade acquisition Dyson Daniels could give opposing backcourts fits on the defensive end.
Like Johnson, Bufkin will have to overcome early durability concerns after dealing with thumb and back issues last season.
Still, the 6-foot-4 guard fits the defensive turn that has taken precedence this offseason.
The Hawks’ defense cratered last season; a season in which Young played the fewest games of his career. That further highlights that a change was made. Time will tell if the right change was made and if Bufkin can be a part of the solution.
Dyson Daniels should receive ample opportunity to prove himself with Hawks
The Hawks will want to justify Dyson Daniels as the centerpiece of the Dejounte Murray trade even with two first-rounders also included in the deal.
Daniels was the No. 8 overall pick in the 2022 draft. He is coming off a career season averaging 5.8 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.7 assists, and 1.4 steals. However, he also shot 31.1% from beyond the arc, a step back from his 31.4% clip in 2022-23.
Perhaps most concerning is that Daniels is also a poor free throw shooter.
Daniels averaged 8.0 points with 5.3 boards, 3.3 assists, and 1.4 steals over the final eight games of the regular season. He shot 43.5% on 2.9 attempts from three in that span.
However, his role was significantly reduced in the Pelican’s first-round playoff series loss to the Oklahoma City Thunder. After averaging 22 minutes during the regular season, Daniels saw fewer than eight minutes in his three postseason appearances.
He was a DNP-CD in the decisive Game 4 of the series.
Where he fits in Snyder’s three-point-laden scheme remains to be seen. But he is a good bet to get every opportunity to prove he does not belong in the rotation.
The Pelicans’ differential was better with Daniels off the floor with a plus-4.9 rating last season. They still posted a plus-3.6 rating with him. He also goes from one acclaimed shooting coach in Fred Vinson, now with the Detroit Pistons, to Hawks assistant GM Kyle Korver.
It is on Daniels to make the necessary strides, much like Johnson has, and, hopefully, like Bufkin will.