4 Reasons why the Hawks should not trade Trae Young or Dejounte Murray

It seems like a foregone conclusion that the Atlanta Hawks will split up their star backcourt duo of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray.

The reasons to do so are plentiful.

Through two seasons, the Hawks are 56-62 when their two stars play together. Murray was 14-14 without Young last season, and 17-18 without Young since joining the Hawks. Young was 2-2 without Murray in 2023-24 and 5-5 without him over the last two seasons.

The Hawks also had a minus-6.3 net efficiency differential with Murray and Young on the floor last season, per Cleaning The Glass. 

However, several signs – both internal and external – that suggest patiences is in order.

Dallas Mavericks should cause pause in Hawks

The Dallas Mavericks are set to play in their first NBA Finals since winning it all in 2011, and they will face a perennial contender in the Boston Celtics. That is notable because the Mavs were 22-23 before hitting a seven-game winning streak that turned their season around.

They went from 29-23 at the trade deadline, sitting eighth in the Western Conference standings, to a 50-32 final mark and the West’s fifth seed.

The questions about Doncic’s fit alongside Kyrie Irving? Gone. 

It is because Dallas made the right moves to bolster their roster around two, ultra-effective stars in Doncic and Irving, most notably with a pair of rim-protectors in Daniel Gafford and rookie Dereck Lively II.

Dallas selected Lively with the No. 10 overall pick in the 2023 draft. Atlanta has a chance to do something similar with the No. 1 pick and French big man Alexadre Sarr.

Sarr, Murray, Young, and Jalen Johnson with De’Andre Hunter or Saddiq Bey could be tough.

The Hawks and Mavericks have been inextricably linked for the past six years, ever since the draft night deal that sent No. 3 overall pick Luka Doncic to the Mavs in exchange for Young and a pick that would later become Cam Reddish (snice-traded).

Details around the events leading up to that trade are nebulous at best.

Reports emerged stating Doncic was never coming to Atlanta, a notion Young’s father has confirmed despite their initial surprise his son landed with the Hawks.

Mavericks owner Mark Cuban recently told the story of how he called Hawks owner Tony Ressler to hash out the landmark deal during an appearance on “The Draymond Green Show” with the Golden State Warriors star in April. 

Cuban said Mavs scouts had Deandre Ayton ranked No. 1 in the class.

However, their analytics had Doncic as the top prospect. Furthermore, Cuban said they were hearing that the Hawks “wanted Trae.”

Given all that went into selecting Young and all that was given up to acquire Murray, pulling the plug on the experiment with so many other factors at play could prove foolhardy. And the Hawks might not be ready to concede just yet.

Landry Fields’ comments add context to Hawks’ advanced metrics

The most understated part of all of this has been that neither Young nor Murray has pushed for a trade publicly despite the organization’s seemingly thinly-veiled attempts to split them up. But front offices do due diligence; it’s part of the job.

General Manager Landry Fields also admitted that some of the numbers around the pairing indicate that it does not work.

But Fields also said the Hawks will explore the other side of that same coin.

“Sample size is getting larger and larger and larger,” Fields told reporters at the trade deadline. “I can't lie to you. The numbers speak for themselves on that. But we're also interested in, well, let's say they're on the court together and it's based off the numbers it's not working out. Well, why is that? 

“For those guys – or any particular instance – yeah, it's looking at, ‘Okay, why when it is working on the court, why is that successful? Why are we seeing positive results of that? What is it that you're doing? Those would be the things that for us, I think, tie back into a lot of our pillars.”

Fields has been given the freedom to remake the roster. But the Hawks added an experienced Assistant General Manager in Onsi Saleh, who comes from the Golden State Warriors.

The Warriors notably produced former Hawks president Travis Schlenk.

Schlenk was the architect of the current Hawks core and Fields’ boss until a series of events – keyed in part by the trade to acquire Murray – led to his abrupt exit after moving to an advisory role in December 2022.

In many ways, that now makes the current iteration of the Hawks that we’ve seen for the last two years Fields’ baby, the failure of which could have significant ramifications.

It is all the more reason for the Hawks GM to practice patience.

What the numbers say about the Hawks' dynamic duo

Fields would only be justified in staying with the backcourt if there were enough metrics to counter the negative that have been promoted about the duo’s ineffectiveness.

The Murray-Young combo produced negative numbers on the whole. But one simple change – removing Jalen Johnson from the equation – saw that number rise to minus-3.3. A lineup of Young, Murray, Bey, Hunter, and Clint Capela had a plus-3.5 rating last season.

That’s still not great, or even good. 

One step further – removing Bey – and the Hawks are in plus territory, albeit only slightly, and on just 182 qualifying possessions.

Of course, the Hawks want Johnson on the floor. Bey was a key contributor last season too.

The Hawks may have to split the difference as lineups featuring Johnson with Bey or Hunter produced net efficiency differentials worse than minus-17. However, lineups with Johnson, Murray, and Young alongside Bogdan Bogdanovic ranked in the 99th percentile.

Bogdanovic’s presence even boosted a lineup with Bey on the floor and Johnson at the 5. Another small sample size (five groups with 136 total possessions) makes that difficult to trust.

Still, each of those groups boasted positive net efficiency differentials.

That would seem counterintuitive to the underlying issue for the Hawks’ backcourt. Young and Murray are fine as a pair but have historically thrived as the primary ball handler. Adding more playmakers would seem to be to their further detriment.

The fact that it did not and instead enhanced them is worth exploring, especially coming off such an injury-marred season. 

The answer could be to insert Bogdanovic into the starting lineup.

He has been excellent as the Hawks’ sixth man, though, and such a change would make the Hawks smaller and worse defensively. The Hawks need a two-way wing to step in and be that connecting piece.

Hunter, the No. 4 overall pick in 2019, is the perfect candidate. He lacks Bogdanovic’s passing chops but has the athleticism and two-way game to be impactful. Unfortunately for Hunter and the Hawks, he hasn’t been healthy enough to maintain that impact.

He too thrived off the bench this past season – at a costly $20 million – and only saw success with Johnson as Bey did – with Bogdanovic as the fifth man.

That makes the profile clear for any outside target who could fix the issue.

History says the Hawks will not get enough value to compete

Trading one of their two stars signals desperation for the Hawks. That is not inherently a bad thing. But it does put them at a disadvantage at the negotiating table. Every reason they have to explore trade options could work against them.

Young potential fit on a true contender as a small, ball-dominant guard. Murray’s admitted lack of a track record as a true lead guard as well as team success. 

Both will come up as teams try to bid the Hawks down.

The anticipated interest in both will help with that to some degree. But the Hawks’ track record – and that in similar past deals – also suggests the Hawks would be better off at holding off rather than dumping one of the two stars.

Their return for Collins was Rudy Gay – who was traded soon after – and a conditional second-round pick. The pick is from the Memphis Grizzlies.

They also got a $25.3 million trade exception ($23 million remaining) that expires in early July.

The Hawks received a conditional first-rounder from the Sacramento Kings for Kevin Huerter which the Kings kept after failing to make the playoffs and landing in the lottery this season. It will now convey in 2025 so long as their pick does not fall in the top 12. 

The pick is protected for the top 10 in 2026 at which point it will turn into a pair of second-rounders.

They used the conditional first-round pick from trading Reddish to acquire Murray.

In all, the Hawks sent four picks and veteran Danilo Gallinari to the San Antonio Spurs for Murray in 2022. They are unlikely to receive commensurate value in a trade sending Murray out even with his strong individual feats last season.

Likewise, Young’s polarizing reputation as evidenced by the discourse around him could also make it difficult to get proper value back for the face of the franchise.

The reasons to move on from the duo are plentiful. 

But the arguments against doing so are also significant. And with such a potentially monumental decision on his hands, Fields might be wise to practice the same prudence we have seen from some of his peers. The Mavs did. There are numbers to support it. And Fields seems open to it.