How Can Paul Millsap Take Another Step Forward?

Paul Millsap is a proven star in the NBA. But how can he continue to progress and improve this season for the Atlanta Hawks?

What was your reaction when the Hawks first signed Paul Millsap to a two year deal back on 07/10/2013? Who? Why are they doing that? That’s not Derrick Favors or Al Jefferson from the Jazz is it? The other guy, right? Well, ok then. Whatever. The fact is, Paul Millsap has been flying under the radar even before ever entering the NBA.

You see growing up, Millsap wasn’t actually considered the best basketball player in his own family. All four of the Millsap brothers play, or have played the game at a high level. You may have heard of Elijah, who is a guard for the Utah Jazz entering his third season. Aberaham, the youngest, is a 6’4″ junior guard for the Tennessee State Tigers. Eldest brother John would tell you that he was the better of the ballers most of the time though.

"I just say I paved the way,” John says. “Growing up, I beat (Paul) at everything. When he was younger? Yeah, I schooled him most of the time. Right now, he’s kind of schooling me on this level. He just started to take control. Just now.” John told desertnews.com in 2007."

After being taken 47th overall in the second round of the 2005 NBA draft, Millsap shattered any expectations of his right out of the gate. He led all rookies in rebounds at 5.2 per game, in only 18 minutes of run. It was mentioned that he could possibly win rookie of the year due to his strong performances, but Brandon Roy wound up winning that award.

There seems to be a grand misconception that Millsap has improved by leaps and bounds since becoming an Atlanta Hawk. Of course he has, making the all-star team all three years, but to a lesser degree. He was actually a very productive player as a member of the Utah Jazz too.

For 2010- 2011 he averaged 17.3 points and 7.6 rebounds per game. In 2011- 2012 he scored 16.6 points and grabbed 8.8 rebounds per game. That’s similar to the numbers he does here. On those porous Salt Lake City teams, he just had to settle for being an unsung hero.

As an Atlanta Hawk, he has been excellent. Each season has been unique, of great quality. His highest scoring output for the Hawks, and his career, was in 2013- 2014 with 17.9.

During the 2014- 2015 campaign, he scored less with 16.7, but was more efficient, shooting three percentage points higher at .513 field goal percentage compared to the. 487 from before. Last year he established himself as a defensive stalwart, earning all NBA defensive 2nd team honors with 1.8 steals and 1.7 blocks per game.

He was 5th in the league as he rejected a total 139 shots.

The one area where he has really improved upon since playing for the Jazz, is three-point shooting. In seven years for the Jazz, he made a total of 31 three pointers. In only three years with the Hawks, he’s made 227. That is probably the reason for all his additional recognition right there. After all, three points is always better than two.

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He has taken more three-point attempts every year in Atlanta, initially 212, then 216 and last year, 232. His percentage for converting them has decreased each year, initially at .358, then .356 and .319 last year. Those numbers aren’t a cause for grave concern, but since the Hawks don’t have a couple of their better outside shooters anymore, he does need to step that up.

The .319 rate of last year won’t cut the mustard for this coming season. It would benefit the team extraordinarily if he can make say, 40 percent of at least 250 attempts.

That may be a unrealistic expectation of him, but in a contract year, he could convince the Hawks and many other teams that he’s deserving of a max deal with that type of improvement. He may get a max-level deal regardless.

Combined with his normal contributions, If he can become a Ryan Anderson like presence from deep, he suddenly isn’t just an all star anymore, but a superstar. Paul has already been awesome and meant everything to this club. I’m just searching for aspects of his game that would make him even better.

For him to impact the game in that fashion though, he would have to expand upon his three point prowess significantly. To give you an idea, Ryan Anderson was 131/358 at .366 for three pointers last year. His best was in 2012- 2013 when he made 213/557 at .382 . Essentially, he will have to double-up on his production from long range to reach that plateau.

Now, the last thing I want to see happen is he becomes Josh Smith. Like going out, taking poor three’s early in the shot clock, then forgetting the other strengths of his offensive game. That’s not likely to happen though, so let’s move on.

On the other side of the ball, he is already a very stout defender. For a power forward, 1.8 steals and 1.7 blocks per game puts him in good company. He also is usually disciplined guarding his opponent’s. He has averaged less than three fouls per game each season as a Hawk, staying on the court to continue helping his team. The only game I’ve seen him really have foul trouble, was a game I attended two years ago vs. the Trail Blazers.

During that particular contest, he was matched up against LaMarcus Aldridge. As good or even great of a power forward that Millsap is, the difference between elite and second tier was on display that night. Aldridge got wherever he wanted to, scored in any manner to his liking and dominated the boards. Millsap had two fouls in the first quarter and went to the bench before getting into any rhythm of the game. He was discombobulated and angered with the officials all night. He finished with just 8 points, in constant foul trouble and Aldridge had 33 with 12 rebounds on the way to a Blazers win.

At 6’8″, Millsap just couldn’t handle the 6’11” Aldridge and that was the difference of the game. It was hard to watch, but those performances are few and far between.

The potential is there for Paul to contend for defensive player of the year. Since he has Dwight Howard to fall back on, he can now be more aggressive towards the passing lanes and attempting steals in general. It will be interesting to see how he and Howard work together to anchor the back line of the defense.

Paul Millsap is already an outstanding player. If he scores 17 points, gets 9 rebounds, 3 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.7 blocks per game again on his way to another all star game. There of course won’t be any complaints.

The three-point shooting and defensive parts of his game is where I see the most room for improvement for him this season. To see him increase his scoring average to slightly over 20 per game isn’t out of the question, especially if he does get better from deep. Then he likely won’t do much better than the 139 blocks from last year next to Dwight, but to match it and bump his steals over two could earn him some DPOY hardware.

Next: Player Preview: Kent Bazemore

If Millsap can take this type of step forward, the Hawks will be tough to beat.

basketballreference.com and wikipedia.com was used in this report

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