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Millsap or Carroll? The Hawks Might Have To Choose

By Connor Renfro

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The Atlanta Hawks have replicated the San Antonio Spurs’ model under coach Mike Budenholzer exceptionally well this season: the ball moves fluidly and without agenda, the defense is cleverly built on the foundations of the team, yet is complimented by phenomenal individual talent, plus a stable of players who can fire away from beyond the arc doesn’t hurt either.

This shouldn’t come as a surprise considering Budenholzer spent 17 years as an assistant to the illustrious Gregg Popovich in San Antonio. The “Spurs East” title is so accurate, in fact, that Budenholzer even has high-payroll caliber players sacrificing for the good of the team financially, choosing winning over salary, much like the Spurs have done for years. It seems a bit more accidental in Atlanta than in San Antonio however.

Forward Paul Millsap didn’t sign in Atlanta thinking they would be this good this soon, though I’m sure this is a welcome surprise to the now two-time All-Star who signed a 2-year/$19 million contract with the Hawks before the 2013-14 season, a deal that will expire at the end of this season allowing Millsap to sign wherever he pleases.

While $19 million is nothing to scoff at, Millsap’s performance has outweighed his salary, and at the age of 30, this summer may be his last good chance to rake in some serious cash with a long-term contract, unless he looks to sign a 1-year deal in order to take advantage of the projected explosion of the salary cap in 2016, which is unlikely to happen given his age.

While at first retaining Millsap looks like a no-brainer for the Hawks, there may be a few more factors to consider than simply his monetary demands.

Development of front-court talent is one such factor, and while favoring Mike Scott or Mike Muscala over paying Millsap this summer would be the definition of hasty, this tandem of Mikes, (the Muscala half in-particular) looks to have a surprisingly high upside.

Another consideration for Atlanta should be the contract of Al Horford, which is set to expire in 2016. While Millsap is posting slightly better numbers than Horford at 16.8 points and 7.8 rebounds per-game compared to Horford’s 15.1 points and 7.2 rebounds per-game, Horford’s importance to his team is undeniable; just ask last year’s Hawks how much they missed him after he had season-ending surgery to repair a torn pectoral muscle.

Although these are two huge considerations for the Hawks to digest when negotiating with Millsap, the biggest may be fellow forward DeMarre Carroll, who is also set to enter unrestricted free-agency at season’s end.

While stats will tell you that Millsap is clearly the more crucial of the two, Carroll’s importance doesn’t exist on any stat sheet; hustle, effort, and strong defense can’t be conveyed in a statistical form (though I’m sure ESPN is working on it).

Carroll has not only carved out a niche in Atlanta (something he was unable to do on previous teams) but he’s excelling in that niche. Carroll’s defensive toughness, awareness, and intelligence have been highly praised by coach Budenholzer, as he has spearheaded this much-improved defense all season.

In some ways, Carroll is the Hawks personified: as previously stated, he is a much-improved defender this year, at the same time the Hawks rank seventh in opponent points per-game allowing 97.3 this year compared to the 101.5 they gave up last year.

Another, more glamorous example of this is the improvement in three-point shooting: Carroll is shooting a career-high 39.9 percent from beyond the arc compared to 36.2 percent last season, simultaneously his team is shooting 38.6 percent from three-point range this year, which is good for second in the league, compared to last season’s 36.3 percent.

Comparisons aside, Carroll is an undeniably crucial piece to the Hawks’ puzzle. Many would say that Carroll is a product of Budenholzer’s system, but, while the numbers (specifically the ones I just listed) do support those claims, I am of the belief that he is a product of his team, much like a certain J.R. Smith has the reputation of being.

What I mean by that is this: Carroll, at least offensively, is best when complimenting others rather than taking matters into his own hands. He doesn’t need the ball to be present in the offense, even as a fifth option in the Hawks’ starting lineup, but that’s just what he seems to be — an option, not a necessity.

No matter how great the system is (in this case, very great) I just can’t find it possible that someone like Carroll produces offensively the way he has this season without the stable of scoring threats he has the pleasure of playing with in Atlanta. But enough about his offense, like I said, Carroll’s value is defensive, and for that reason alone he should be re-signed by the Hawks.

Atlanta would do well to retain both of their starting forwards this summer, but whether or not they will be willing to potentially take less money for the team’s sake remains to be seen. If it comes down to choosing one or the other, the Hawks will need to prioritize what’s more important: the established play of Paul Millsap? Or the potential continued improvement of DeMarre Carroll?

Next: Former Hawk Dikembe Mutombo Voted Into Hall of Fame

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