How Al Horford Can Get His Mid-Range Shot Flowing Again

There’s always a lot of talk about who the Atlanta Hawks go-to-guy is. Or what play they should turn to when it matters most.

At the end of Monday’s Game 4, the option Atlanta seemed to choose was to run plays for Kyle Korver three-pointers over and over again, to the point where the Brooklyn Nets where fully prepared for what was coming and the Hawks were left looking desperate.

Atlanta mustn’t forget what their real bread and butter shot has been for the past few seasons, across different regimes though. That is Al Horford‘s mid-range jumper.

Long two-pointers may be frowned upon in analytics circles, and are quickly becoming a dying art form in the NBA, but when you have a big man who shoots the ball as well as Horford does they can be scarily efficient.

As such, it has been a staple play of Atlanta’s offense, whether slow or fast paced, for a number of years.

The pick-and-pop play that Horford initiated alongside Mike Bibby, has been further honed in the company of Jeff Teague. The high-low passing tandem that was so comfortable for Horford and Josh Smith, has been fine-tuned with the arrival of Paul Millsap. And if Joe Johnson created space for the big man as a decoy, Kyle Korver can make Horford feel like he has the whole floor open in front of him.

In the regular season, Horford averaged an impressive 53.8 percent success rate from the field. According to NBA Stats, of all of those attempts, over 41 percent of them were catch and shoot tries, and the Dominican made 46.1 percent of those attempts.

In fact, Horford was so comfortable with his shot throughout the season that on all field goal attempts taken within the first 20 seconds of the shot clock he averaged over 55.5 percent.

Now, let’s fast forward to the present and the four games we’ve seen so far from Horford and the Hawks in this year’s Playoffs.

Horford is only shooting 42.3 percent from the floor, which although it’s well below his best, doesn’t necessarily seem disastrous. What’s much more troubling below the surface though, is his woeful 22.7 percent success rate on catch and shoot jumpers for the series.

The logical jump to make from that statistic is to assume that Brook Lopez, generally a pretty average defender, must be making life particularly difficult for Horford. That’s just not true though.

In the regular season, 44.9 percent of Horford’s shot attempts were taken with a defender within four feet of him, while so far against the Nets he’s found greater space with only 40.4 percent of his attempts being that closely contested.

If we break this down even further, we can see that Lopez is actually allowing Horford significantly more space than most of his opponents do. Only 5.8 percent of Horford’s shots in the Playoffs have seen a defender within two feet, and even when this has been the case, Horford has made over 66 percent of those attempts showing that Lopez doesn’t bother him.

What this means is that it’s his open shots that Horford is missing. The former Florida Gator is only making 37.5 percent of what the NBA deems to be open shots (defender within 4-6 feet), and even more shockingly he’s only shooting 26.7 percent on wide open shots (defender 6+ feet away).

The positive in that is that it isn’t a trend that will last forever, and Horford is likely going to correct it, particularly as the discomfort in his recently dislocated finger subsides.

It can’t all be put down to his finger’s direct impact on his shooting stroke, although that’s not to say it’s not having a mental effect. There’s a hesitation in Horford’s game on offense which is making him think twice before pulling the trigger, and do things he wouldn’t normally do.

Take for example, these two shot attempts where he seems in two minds whether to pass or shoot, ends up faking, losing his rhythm and coming up short.

Then there are plays where Horford is forcing it without quite having his feet set. His shooting game has never really been about motion, or fading away.

What Horford needs to focus on is just getting his shots within the flow of the offense again. When he gets to his spots, or plays the pick and roll with his point guards, he’s close to automatic.

If the Hawks and Al Horford can get back in their comfort zone, and regain their old ways, this series won’t last much longer.

Next: What Do First Round Struggles Mean For Atlanta Hawks?

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