Will the Hawks Find Draft Magic at #15?

Even though the Atlanta Hawks have the 15th pick in the NBA Draft, it’s hard to get worked up about it. 15 isn’t excellent, it’s middle of the pack. Sometimes, 15 isn’t even good. Besides, the Hawks have been here before. They had the 15^th pick last year, selected Adreian Payne, and then traded him in February to Minnesota.

So what are we supposed to believe? That the Hawks have suddenly discovered the magic formula under their pillow and will find a replacement for one of their outgoing stars if the worst case scenario, the nightmare nuclear option, happens?

But ask yourself this: Are the Hawks good talent evaluators of 19 and 20 year olds? Of their last five first round draft picks, the landscape is filled with hits and misses. Adreian Payne, Dennis Schroder, Shane Larkin, John Jenkins and Damion Jones.

On the one hand, the Hawks have a built in excuse. Because they have not been in the lottery since 2007 when Al Horford was drafted with the third pick, the opportunity to nab a superlative player has been vastly diminished. Great is gone so they have to settle for good but sometimes they have feasted on average. And they have let players slip away.

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They drafted Shane Larkin in 2013 and traded him on draft night. They could have drafted shot blocker Rudy Gobert to help with rim protection.

In 2011 they drafted Keith Benson who only played 3 NBA games and never scored. Isaiah Thomas was still on the board. Thomas has played in 283 games and has averaged 16 points and 5 assists.

Despite the superstar glorification or perhaps, because of it, the truth about the NBA is sobering. Less than 1% of the NBA are stars; 99% are role players. The Hawks, like all clubs, wish for the former, but settle for the latter. They are looking for a player that can fill a particular role, who can develop and learn quickly and can contribute.

When you consider that Paul Millsap was a second round pick (47), it becomes clear that where you pick in the draft is less important than who you pick.

Draft busts muddy the waters of each and every draft because the college game is a separate sport altogether with its own rituals, characteristics, normative baseline behaviors and a structure that doesn’t necessarily lend itself to NBA success.

The bottom line: some players never mature physically or mentally. Sadly, college is the best they will ever be.

Apr 14, 2015; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indiana Pacers forward Paul George (13) brings the ball up court against the Washington Wizards at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Indiana defeats Washington 99-95 in double overtime. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

That is one variable that can sink a team at draft time. The other is luck. 9 teams passed on Paul George. Six teams passed on Steph Curry. 10 teams passed on Klay Thompson.

In 2011, Iman Shumpert was the 17^th pick in the draft and Tobias Harris was the 19^th pick in the draft. Four years later, Shumpert is on the verge of his first NBA Finals ring, and Harris, a restricted free agent, is expecting a large payday after a 17 and 6 year.

In 2010, Eric Bledsoe was the 18^th pick in the draft. Bledsoe signed a max deal last summer with the Phoenix Suns.

In 2009, Jrue Holliday was the 17^th pick, Ty Lawson was the 18^th pick and Jeff Teague was the 19^th pick.

But, the opposite can occur as well. It can go south when organizations make mistakes.

In 2010, the Timberwolves took Luke Babbit with the 16^th pick. He’s averaged 4 points in his NBA career. Another 4 point per game player is Chris Singleton who was drafted 18^th by the Wizards in 2011.

Royce White is the mother of all front office cautionary tales. He was chosen with the 16^th pick in the 2012 draft. He played in exactly 3 games and is no longer in the NBA. The red flags and warning signs regarding Royce White as a NBA player were visible. Nothing was hidden. He suffered from mental illness which would make his entry into the league problematic but not impossible.

Professional basketball asks its participants to achieve under stress. Mental health patients suffer digression when faced with stress. It was a slippery slope destined to fail before it had a chance to work. The Rockets armed with information about Royce’s mental condition, drafted him anyway, wasting guaranteed money on a player most knew had little chance to succeed on this level.

The Atlanta Hawks have their homework to do. It’s not necessarily about the best athlete or the best player but who fits the system. The Hawks also have to consider the possibility of losing Paul Millsap, DeMarre Carroll or Kent Bazemore and to find a player with skill sets they can develop over time that will be comparable.

The Hawks ranked 30^th in offensive rebounding this past season. They were 22^nd in defensive rebounding. As the playoffs illustrated, shots, even when players are open, don’t fall. You need rebounders to corral the misses and give extra possessions. The rebounding was one thing; it was awful. But what killed the Hawks in their series against the Cavaliers was their lack of scoring off the dribble and in the lane.

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With that in mind, here are some possible players the Hawks may consider at #15:

• Bobby Portis (Arkansas): power forward, 6-11, 20 years old. 17 points a game scorer, great offensive rebounder, 9 rebounds a game, 30 minute a game.
• Trey Lyles (Kentucky): power forward, 6-10, 19 years old. Good defender. Not much of a perimeter shooter but efficient scorer nonetheless.
• Myles Turner (Texas): center, 7-0, 19 years old. Rebounder and shot blocker.
• Montrezl Harrell (Louisville): power forward, 6-8, 21 years old. 15 points a game scorer, sick wingspan, ready to play right now, 32 minutes a game. Not a three point shooter, bad free throw shooter, great rebounder
• Sam Decker (Wisconsin): small forward, 6-9, 21 years old. 14 points a game scorer, 31 minutes a game, below average three point shooter, good offensive rebounder, big game experience

The 15^th pick has had its share of history, of winners and a lot of losers. These 15^th picks made the most of their opportunity in 2014-15.

• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks, ’13): 31 minutes, 13 points, 7 rebounds
• Kawhi Leonard (Pacers, ’11): 32 minutes, 17 points, 7 rebounds
• Robin Lopez (Suns, ’08): 28 minutes, 10 points, 7 rebounds
• Al Jefferson (Celtics, ’04): 31 minutes, 17 points, 8 rebounds

The mistakes at 15 have had forgettable careers but guaranteed money. Their career stats:

• Austin Daye (Pistons, ’08): 14 minutes, 5 points, 3 rebounds
• Cedric Simmons (Pelicans, ’06): 9 minutes, 2 points, 2 rebounds
• Reece Gaines (Orlando, ’03): 9 minutes, 2 points, 2 assists

Next: 10 Days of DeMarre Carroll