The Win Right Now Strategy: Trade the 15th Pick
Two weeks from today, on a stage in New York City, the NBA will hold their 69th annual draft. A showcase for the great, the good, the average and the mediocre, the draft is a collection of players who yearn to be professionals. Some will have long, well documented careers. Others will be in the NBA for a hot minute and then end up in China or Europe. Injuries will change the fate of a few; professional athletics is unpredictable. And those in the middle will be forgettable five years from now.
For better or worse, the draft has turned into a compulsively hyped annual rite of passage for amateur players. NBA Teams put their money on the idea of hope and acceptance- hoping for stars, accepting role players. It takes place on the last Thursday night of the NBA season.
The Atlanta Hawks have the 15th pick in the draft, the first pick outside of the lottery, and there are good players to be found there, such as Bobby Portis, a 6-11 power forward out of Arkansas, or Trey Lyles, a 6-10 power forward out of Kentucky, or Sam Decker, a 6-9 shooter out of Wisconsin. But none of these players are going to be significant factors in their rookie years when they are learning the NBA game, adjusting to the lifestyle, the schedule, the attention and critique, their new coach and teammates.
Most of the players in the draft are 19 or 20 years old. Even though their potential to become good players is relevant, most will take 2-3 years to develop into the players they need to be to make a significant contribution to the Hawks post-season dreams.
May 2, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward Kawhi Leonard (2) takes a shot in the second half of game seven of the first round of the NBA Playoffs against the Los Angeles Clippers at Staples Center. Clippers won 111-109. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
In 2011, Kawhi Leonard was drafted by the Indiana Pacers and traded to the San Antonio Spurs for guard George Hill. The Spurs are an established playoff team with a culture in place, a great coach, a shrewd general manager and yearly expectations to win the NBA title. When Leonard was drafted, the Spurs hadn’t been to the NBA Finals in 4 years.
Kawhi Leonard’s rookie year, he averaged 8 points and 5 rebounds. His second year he gravitated to 12 points a game and the Spurs lost a game 7 in the NBA Finals. His third year, he dropped 13 a game and was the MVP of the NBA Finals. It was a three year learning curve.
The Hawks don’t have three years to wait on player development. They have already taken on the developmental growth arc of Dennis Schroder, Kent Bazemore and Mike Muscala. What the Hawks need are veteran talents who are versatile enough to do things in games that fits the Hawks current structure.
All playoff teams think this way. When LeBron James decided to come to Cleveland, the first thing he did was make sure rookie Andrew Wiggins was somewhere else. And the #1 pick before Wiggins, draft bust Anthony Bennett, had to go as well.
The old NBA cliché about not winning with young players is true. No rookies are playing in the NBA Finals. No rookies played in the Conference Finals. James has a gift for making players better but even he understands rookie players need time and experience to make mistakes and learn from them. NBA contenders can’t afford mistakes.
One way to achieve a balance between who you draft and who plays for you in playoff games is to acquire veterans through draft day trades. The Atlanta Hawks, who need significant upgrades, have as an asset their #15 draft pick. They should use it without hesitation.
The Hawks are set at the point guard position but the other four positions need significant upgrades.
Shooting Guard: Trade the #15th pick to Memphis for Courtney Lee. Lee has one year left on his contract for $5.6 million. He is a career 45% shooter and 5 times in his career had a season where he shot 40% from three. Plus, he’s a good defender.
Small Forward: Trade the 15th pick to the Lakers for Nick Young. Before your brain explodes at the thought of Swaggy in Atlanta, first think of the marketing opportunities once Nick Young is all over the city with his Swaggy P brand of entertainment and with Iggy Azalea, his future wife, in tow. But, as far as basketball is concerned, Young is a one trick pony and he does that one thing really, really well. He loves the basketball and he loves to score.
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Like Kent Bazemore, Young had a career year playing for Mike D’antoni’s version of catch and shoot basketball. The Hawks culture is a hybrid of D’antoni’s core principles. Young would fit right in coming off the bench with the only objective to score. Psychologically fragile, Young performs well when surrounded with players and coaches that are supportive, non-judgmental, team oriented and outgoing. He’d put up ungodly offensive numbers in the Hawks sets. His defense is a work in progress except when Young loves his teammates and his coaches and the feeling is reciprocal. Then he gives maximum effort on the defensive end. It’s not Dellavedova like, Young isn’t diving to the floor, but he will play hard.
Power Forward: Trade the 15th pick to Houston for Donatas Motiejunas, a 7 foot power forward who can shoot the lights out. He was deprived of the national spotlight in the playoffs because of injury but this past year the 24 year old shot 37% from three and 50% overall. He was a 6 rebound player in 2014-15 even though he only played 29 minutes. His salary is very manageable. He has one year remaining at $2.8 and a qualifying offer in the summer of 2016 for $3.2 million.
Center: Trade the 15th pick to the Clippers for Spencer Hawes. Yes, he was in the dog house all season with Doc Rivers but Hawes was the right player in the wrong system. He is a pick and pop or catch and shoot forward/center. He functions the best on a team with a ball sharing offense, rather than with isolation players like Blake Griffin and Chris Paul. The Hawks are a perfect fit for Hawes who stretches the floor and forces opposing centers to guard him on the perimeter. The 27 year old has two years left on his deal for $5.5 million and a player option for $6.2.