$50 Million for DeMarre Carroll?

In 2014-15, DeMarre Carroll had a breakout season for the Atlanta Hawks. His 13 points and 4 rebounds in 31 minutes, plus his defensive intensity, were an anchor for the Hawks on the perimeter. In the playoffs, he was even better- 15 points, 6 rebounds, 49% shooting- despite his injury in the Eastern Conference Finals. For the entire playoff season, DeMarre was the most consistent player of the Hawks starting five.

Now comes the hard part for the Atlanta Hawks. They have to decide how much DeMarre is worth on the open market. The market determines value; you are worth what someone is willing to pay you. If the Knicks offer Carroll $18 million, then that is what he is worth. If the Hawks offer him $10 million, that is what he is worth.

Mar 30, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Hawks forward DeMarre Carroll (5) looks to pass defended by Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) in the third quarter of their game at Philips Arena. The Hawks won 101-88. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

There is a slippery slope in all this that has long term ramifications whereas you can dig a ditch and fall through. Organizations have to be conscious of the present with an eye on the future. It is economic suicide to live beyond your means, even in the NBA. Billionaires must adhere to a budget just like regular 9-5 folks who need to pay the electric bill and can’t steal from the car payment.

It’s more complicated than just signing Carroll to a $50 million contract. For every decision, there is a reaction, whether it be mild or cataclysmic.

How will it impact the Hawks going forward in a structural sense if they sign Carroll to what he wants.

We see in the NBA Finals how depth is an issue. Players get hurt because players get hurt but what is the backup Plan B if the unthinkable happens? In many instances, the backup Plan B is the collection of mediocre players signed on the cheap because you have overextended a player you really, really like but who may never live up to the contract you signed him to.

While fans want continuity, owners want realism and profits. The worst thing an ownership can do is fall in love with a player. When the Lakers paid an aging Kobe Bryant $25 million, it was calculated. They were negotiating with their fan base for economic reasons, aware they were two years away from clearing the cap and being in the playoffs. Bryant is good for business, he sells tickets and moves merchandise.

Not so with DeMarre Carroll. He’s a valued member of the Hawks team, a reason why they had this historic season, but in the aggregate, fans aren’t plopping down $75 because they have to see DeMarre Carroll play.

There is something else that must be addressed as well. Can you get a better player for the amount of money that DeMarre Carroll wants? Consider Tobias Harris, a 22 year old restricted free agent and compare their numbers in 2014-15.

DeMarre Carroll: 13 points, 4 rebounds, 49% shooting
Tobias Harris: 17 points, 6 rebounds, 47% shooting

DeMarre Carroll:

2 Point Shots: 57%
0-3 feet: 66%
3-10 feet: 47%
10-16 feet: 36%
Long 2’s: 46%
3 Point Shots: 40%

Tobias Harris:

2 Points Shots: 50%
0-3 feet: 69%
3-10 feet: 39%
10-16 feet: 37%
Long 2’s: 39%
3 Point Shots: 36%

DeMarre Carroll is a better perimeter shooter than Tobias Harris but Harris is more athletic, can get to the rim off his dribble penetration, is a better rebounder and gets to the line more, plus, at 22, he is six years younger than Carroll.

Tobias Harris has yet to reach his prime.

There are options for the Hawks if the financial threshold is crossed by Carroll and his agent and the Hawks cannot afford to pay him what he wants. The last thing the Hawks want to do is to get into a bidding war with a large market team whose ability to seduce players with more than money but with lifestyle, off the court opportunities and their history is part of their free agent strategy.