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Atlanta Hawks: Al Horford’s Three-Point Shooting Experiment

By Andrew Snyder

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The NBA landscape is ever evolving. What was the dominant style of basketball in the 1980s changed in the 1990s, the 1990s gave way to the 2000s, and 2010s have seen the game change in ways it never has before. We are officially in the “pace and space” era. The era of small-ball is real and it’s spectacular. The Golden State Warriors won an NBA title heavily relying on a smaller lineup that played Draymond Green as the nominal center, now everyone and their brother is trying to copy them.

That means chucking three-pointers at a high rate. The three-point attempt rate has increased every season since 2011-2012, and through Tuesday the league wide three-point attempt rate this season sits at 27.6 percent.

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Gone are the days of dumping the ball down to your 7-foot behemoth and letting him go to work. Sure there are still hulking centers around the league, but even DeMarcus Cousins is launching three-pointers this season.

That shift in the way the game is played is not lost on the Atlanta Hawks organization. Paul Millsap turned himself into a three-point shooting machine over the last two seasons and this season another Hawk is attempting to add long range accuracy to his repertoire. That Hawk is obviously the longest tenured Hawk, and the face of the franchise, Al Horford.

Al Horford’s three-point shooting experiment had been a bit mixed to begin the season. His form looks good, he shoots with confidence, but until last night his three-point shooting percentage was not where he or Mike Budenholzer would have liked it to be. Then he went crazy on the New Orleans Pelicans.

Wednesday against the Pellies Horford shot 4-for-6 from deep on his way to a team high 26 points in a victory over New Orleans. Now that’s more like it.

Through nine games Horford is attempting 3.3 three-pointers per game, up from his previous career high of 0.5 per game. So far he’s only shooting 33.3 percent from outside, right at the current league average mark of 33.3 percent. He’s 12-for-34 from three-point range in the regular season after shooting an encouraging 37.5 percent in the preseason.

Despite the rocky start from deep, Horford is still having a solid start to his season. Horford is currently averaging 17.6 points and 8 rebounds per game on 51.7 percent shooting with a PER of 23.54. His team is 8-2 and despite a loss to the plucky Minnesota Timberwolves Monday night, the Hawks look poised to remain a serious contender in the Eastern Conference.

This expansion of his skillset not only helps the Hawks stay one step ahead of the NBA’s three-point shooting revolution, it also makes Horford even more appealing when he hits free agency. He was already destined for a max contract in Atlanta or elsewhere, but if he can truly become a reliable outside shooting threat he becomes even more valuable.

There is some thought that perhaps this increased three-point shooting has gone too far. Paul Flannery and Tom Ziller of SB Nation wrote on excellent piece Tuesday morning about exactly that. Most notably that this increased reliance on three-point shooting is leading to more bad shots.

"It’s not that there are too many threes, it’s that the wrong guys are taking them at the wrong times. There’s smart basketball and there’s bad basketball and it feels like the line is getting crossed."

I agree with the premise, especially with certain players. Anything that pulls DeMarcus Cousins out of the paint seems like bad strategy (though Boogie did go 4-or-5 from outside on Wednesday).The game is changing, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t room in the league for traditional post players.

That being said, I think Horford should keep letting them fly. Even if it takes him a bit to become a more consistent three-point shooter. He’s not one of the wrong guys taking the wrong shots. Horford always been a good shooter, it’s not like he’s a big, hulking center that does all of his work in the restricted area. Horford is generously listed at 6-foot-10 and is a career 45.6 percent shooter from between 10 and 16 feet and a career 46.4 percent shooter from between 16 feet and the three-point line. Shots from those two areas of the court have accounted for 42 percent of his field goal attempts over the course his career.

So, it’s not as if Horford is trying to do something he doesn’t have the ability to do. He can shoot, he’s just extending his range a bit. He’s such a smart player that he knows to only take these shots when they make sense and the opportunities present themselves within the natural flow of Atlanta’s offense. Horford is not the type of player to launch a contested jumper 5 seconds into the shot clock. He’s not reinventing himself completely, just adding another ingredient to an already delicious meal.

If he can get a handle on things the Hawks can play indefensible “five out” lineups that bomb three-pointers and make life hell on traditional centers. Is this the recipe to beating the Cavs in the Eastern Conference Finals?

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A three-point shot will also will help Horford have a chance at a late career renaissance in his later 30s as his athleticism declines. Shooting has proven to age pretty darn well. Just ask Kyle Korver and Dirk Nowitzki . That’s excellent news for Horford and for whichever team signs him long term next offseason.

Horford’s three-point shooting may seem like a wild experiment at the moment, but just give it time. Phillips Arena wasn’t built in a day. If Horford ends up shooting well below league average from three-point distance as the season progresses perhaps he will rethink things, but now is not the time to give up trying.

Next: 4 Observations From Hawks-Wolves

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