What Does The Atlanta Hawks’ Summer Mean For Paul Millsap?

It has been a big off-season for the Hawks, but what do these moves mean for Paul Millsap and his future with the franchise?

Since arriving from Utah, Paul Millsap has slowly but surely become a crucial cog in the Atlanta Hawks’ pass-happy machine. He is the kind of power forward that is perfectly matched to coach Mike Budenholzer’s system, with range of shooting, passing ability and a staunch defensive presence.

Last year, Millsap was a beast and the wide variety of impressive stats proves it. He finished with 17.1 points and nine rebounds, while also contributing 3.3 assists, 1.7 blocks and 1.9 steals. With these stats, Millsap affected the game in almost as many ways as possible. Millsap was an All-Star for the third consecutive year but this year finished fifth in the Defensive Player of the Year voting, comfortably making it onto the NBA All-Defensive Second Team.

As the leading scorer, rebounder, blocker and stealer on the Hawks’ team, Millsap was easily the key player on the team last year and has probably been the franchise’s best player over the last couple of years overall. However, Atlanta’s bold moves this offseason may have quite the impact on Millsap’s future with the Hawks and not in a good way.

Just one year removed from a 60-win season, Atlanta quietly blew up their core this summer, jettisoning Jeff Teague to Indiana and letting Al Horford walk up to Boston over a matter of $6 million.

With Teague gone, the Hawks handed the reins of the offense to Dennis Schroder, who had waited patiently for his chance to start and re-signed breakout small forward Kent Bazemore. The biggest, however, was yet to come and it came in the form of Dwight Howard.

In what is likely their biggest (in terms of stature) free-agency signing in recent history, the Hawks recruited Georgia-native Howard to the ATL for $70 million over three years. For a team that has often struggled to be elite on the boards, Howard seems like he could be a good replacement for Horford and there was some common sense behind it, especially if they already thought Al might be leaving.

However, with Howard signed before Horford had made his decision and Atlanta seemingly still quite eager to bring the Dominican big man back, the team began to dangle Millsap to the rest of the league, gauging the association for trade offers that might let them sign Horford as well. According to Adrian Wojnarowski of the Vertical, Millsap generated a lot of interest:

As it turned out, Atlanta’s hard-nosed negotiating, seemingly based on the idea that Horford was going to take reduced terms to re-up and that his loyalty could be taken advantage of, did not work out. Horford signed with Brad Stevens’ Boston Celtics and Millsap remained a Hawk, but the consequences of these actions are yet to play out. From Millsap: “I felt like Atlanta was home and Atlanta was the better fit.”

Millsap’s three-year contract, signed last off-season, has a player option at the end of this upcoming 2016-17 season. Having not been traded, he will spend the season forming what could be a really strong, two-way front court with Dwight Howard. And with a huge salary increase likely, the Louisiana-native will definitely be opting out of the last year of his contract.

At the end of the year, Millsap’s destination is unknown and little has been said on the matter, though that may be because of how far away it is. Where he ends up is debatable. The power forward will be 32 years old going into free agency and he may look for either a winning situation or a huge payday for his next contract, both of which the Hawks could be incapable or unwilling to offer.

If we have learned anything this offseason, it is that Budenholzer and the Hawks aren’t ready to rebuild just yet. With no better (realistic) options among the upcoming free agents, they will likely throw everything they have at Millsap in a bid to extend a playoff streak that will hopefully be at 10 seasons by then. After all, if Atlanta was going to rebuild, a summer where they lost long-time core players Teague and Horford would have been the perfect time surely, right? Even if this season goes badly, the franchise will likely try to hang around the playoff place and there aren’t many names, if any, among the upcoming free agents that are straight-up superior to Millsap for his role.

Whether he wants to re-sign is another matter entirely and Millsap will undoubtedly be aware that his name came up in trade talks. Players know that trades are a part of the business that is the NBA, but it will still hurt, especially when you have no reason to expect one, as it is with Paul. Atlanta’s scramble to try to retain Horford will have made it clear to Paul that he is not valued as highly as perhaps he should be. Millsap has invested a lot into this current Hawks’ project but the franchise was willing to entertain trading him to keeping Horford and he may well be questioning how much they actually want him on their roster.

Sure, moving Millsap to retain Horford might have made business sense, with Paul likely to command a huge contract next year with an even higher salary cap, but it doesn’t make sense in terms of basketball and that is the main thing. Millsap will know that Al meant more to the fan base but the fact that he was dangled by a team he had led for, at least, two years will probably hurt Paul and it may well reduce his loyalty to the team come free agency.

Even after a 60-win season, Millsap was willing to listen to what other teams in the league had to offer, even if he did choose Atlanta in the end. “It was a difficult process… We met with other teams to see what was out there from a curiosity standpoint. We met with Orlando. I liked a few things they had to offer but I felt like Atlanta was home and Atlanta was the better fit. That’s what it came down to,” Millsap said to Chris Vivlamore of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. With more money on the line and feeling possibly being hurt, it will be interesting to see whether or not Millsap thinks the same way at the end of the year.

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The main talking point in Atlanta’s off-season has most definitely been the Howard-Horford swap and who would be better for the team, but what happened after Howard signed might be the most significant. However the Dwight works out, good or bad, it is the way the team handled Horford’s free agency that was the real problem. When Howard signed, it seemed as though Atlanta was willing to let Al walk, only to change their mind moments later and start a desperate search for a way to bring him back.

If the Hawks wanted Horford back, they should have re-signed him before Dwight, but it seemed as though the franchise did not really have a solid plan coming into the period, aside from signing Howard. If they did have a plan, though, the Horford negotiations would not have been so drawn-out and sloppy and the decision to sign Howard would have come later-when they knew who was staying and going. Instead, they seemed to go at the off-season half-heartedly and the options they explored in that post-Dwight panic to bring Al back could have huge implications for Millsap, Atlanta’s key player.

After all, why re-sign with a team willing to deal you when other teams can offer you better situations, better security and may well offer better finances? After this summer, it seems increasingly likely that Millsap will test the market next year and perhaps walk away from Budenholzer’s ‘always the bridesmaid, never the bride’ team.

It is impossible to predict free agency, as the Horford move shows, but the Hawks’ chances of bringing Millsap back will undoubtedly have taken a hit from their lack of foresight, which may well have weakened their relationship this offseason.

And should Millsap walk, the Hawks will find themselves in a difficult position, having missed the opportunity for a full rebuild this year. In giving Howard a three-year deal, the Hawks seem to have committed to competing and winning for the next few years but in damaging their relationship with Paul, they have jeopardized their ability to do so. To survive a period of post-Horford and post-Teague instability and waiting for Schroeder to grow and Howard to acclimatize to a new team and role, the team needs a strong leader to offer some consistency and steady production. They need Millsap but they may have to do without eventually and that will be their fault.

Without Millsap, Atlanta could fall down the league standings dramatically and Howard will be left among a young roster, primed for a rebuild but unable to do so.