Seeing as the NBA is the best basketball league in the world, predicting win-loss records is always a crap shoot. For the Atlanta Hawks, who currently sit at a record of 19-43 (second-worst in the league), winning games is not particularly at the top of the list for this young team.
Luckily for Atlanta, their schedule is extremely unforgiving going forward, which means that they have a chance to lose the majority of their remaining 20 games.
Let’s take a look at the Hawks remaining schedule and do some fortune-telling to see what the outcomes might be.
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First off, 15 of Atlanta’s final 20 games are against teams in the playoff hunt, and 5 of their games are against the top four seeds in each conference (Toronto, Boston, Golden State and Houston as of writing).
All 15 of these games are complete mismatches, especially the ones against the top four seeds, and the Hawks have very little chance of eking out wins in any of these bouts – especially if their effort from two of their previous three games following the All-Star break are any indication.
That leaves only 5 critical games against the bottom-feeders of the NBA, with games against the Kings, Bulls, Suns, Magic and Hornets (who are probably one tier above the cellar dwellers).
Though the Hawks have played well against these teams at times this season, it seems that ownership has fully embraced the tank and wants the team to lose as many games as possible. Again, if they display the same effort they have since returning from the All-Star break, they will have a very good chance to lose all of those games.
Disclaimer: Coaches and players do not tank and we cannot stress this enough. This is strictly from a fan’s perspective, as we use evidence from the past in order to predict how the Hawks might lose as many games as possible down the stretch.
Warriors @ Hawks, 3/2/18
The Warriors are the defending champions and perhaps one of the greatest teams ever assembled (again). The Hawks have very little defense for Kevin Durant, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson, so all three could go off, though it also wouldn’t be surprising if role players like David West, Omri Casspi and Nick Young explode for huge games too.
Prediction: Hawks lose 123-101 (19-44)
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Suns @ Hawks, 3/4/18
This is perhaps the “marquee” matchup in the race for the worst record in the league, and the Suns got the better of the Hawks earlier this year in last-minute fashion.
Atlanta completely fell apart down the stretch, and were picked apart by the efficient scoring of both Devin Booker and T.J. Warren.
Though Atlanta has shown the ability to pummel teams when opponents don’t give their best effort (such as their recent win against the Pacers), they have also been maddeningly inconsistent on both ends, and this game could go either way – with both teams firmly in the tanking camp.
This should be close if both teams bring their best effort, but Atlanta has a better coach, a better system and probably better all-around talent.
Prediction: Hawks win 116-112 (20-44)
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Hawks @ Raptors, 3/6/18
The Raptors have destroyed the Hawks by a combined 62 points this season, with the first meeting ending in a laughable 112-78 blowout. Being top 10 in both offense and defense (as the Raptors are) will do that to you.
There’s little reason to believe that anything will change from the previous games, and it’s more likely that the outcome will be similar to the first game.
Prediction: Hawks lose 111-88 (20-45)
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Hawks @ Pacers, 3/9/18
The Hawks just defeated the Pacers on Wednesday, blowing them out in the 3rd quarter and then opening the door to a 37-22 4th quarter after that.
However, their previous two meetings with Indiana ended in 10-point and 23-point losses.
If Atlanta comes out with the same effort they showed on Wednesday, they might take this game, but with the Pacers in the thick of a playoff push, it is unlikely they’ll come out as flat as they did in that bout.
Prediction: Hawks lose 103-98 (20-46)
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Bulls @ Hawks, 3/11/18
The previous two games in this matchup this season were both losses for Atlanta, though this tank-tastic game should feature plenty of bad basketball from top to bottom.
However, with Chicago resting starters Robin Lopez and Justin Holiday and the Hawks playing at home, this one could go Atlanta’s way – especially if John Collins wants to show up lottery pick Lauri Markkanen.
Prediction: Hawks win 99-88 (21-46)
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Thunder @ Hawks, 3/13/18
Though this looks like a mismatch on paper, the Hawks played OKC close in Oklahoma in December, even without the services of Dennis Schröder.
Malcolm Delaney notched a career-high 20 points and Atlanta lost on a timely three-pointer from reigning MVP Russell Westbrook.
Again, the Thunder are vying for playoff position, so this should be an easy “L.”
Prediction: Hawks lose 120-103 (21-47)
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Hornets @ Hawks, 3/15/18
The Hornets have had the Hawks’ number this season, winning the three prior games by a combined 42 points. Dwight Howard apparently wants to “kill” the Hawks for his unceremonious trade in the offseason, and he has indeed played well against his hometown team this season.
The Hawks should fight valiantly in this tilt, but with the Hornets ostensibly still in the playoff hunt, the history of this matchup gives the edge to Charlotte.
Prediction: Hawks lose 120-111 (21-48)
Hawks @ Bucks, 3/17/18
The only previous meeting between these two teams was a 117-106 victory by the Bucks, who were led by a combined 60 points from Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton.
Once again, Atlanta has no players even approaching the level of talent that The Greek Freak has, though the team has more upside than they have in recent years.
Still though, the Bucks are a clear playoff team and the Hawks are not.
Prediction: Hawks lose 112-90 (21-49)
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Hawks @ Jazz, 3/20/18
When Atlanta played the Jazz in January, Utah had not reeled off 11 straight victories, and the team put in a putrid effort at Philips Arena.
The Hawks have not been a good road team this year, and the Jazz are still clawing for the 8 seed in the Western Conference.
Prediction: Hawks lose 98-84 (21-50)
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Hawks @ Kings, 3/22/18
In what should be a rollicking affair in Sacramento, two of the worst teams in the league meet up. The only prior meeting between these two teams was an abominable 126-80 obliteration of the Kings by the Hawks at home.
This should be more of a “battle of who could care less,” but, again, the Hawks have a better coach, a better system and better overall players.
Prediction: Hawks win 113-102 (22-50)
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Hawks @ Warriors, 3/23/18
Rinse and repeat previous statement on this matchup, except the Warriors will be at home – ratcheting up the difficulty considerably for Atlanta.
Possible wild card: the Warriors might already be resting some of their key players, but even still, Nick Young, David West and Shaun Livingston playing “the Warriors Way” is probably still enough to take down the Hawks.
Prediction: Hawks lose 133-105 (22-51)
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Hawks @ Rockets, 3/25/18
The Rockets came to Philips Arena and clobbered the Hawks 119-104 in November, and Houston’s team has only improved since that demolition.
Expect a long night in Houston, as fearsome twosome James Harden and Chris Paul will pick Atlanta’s young and inexperienced defense apart.
Prediction: Hawks lose 125-108 (22-52)
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Hawks @ Timberwolves, 3/28/18
The Hawks miraculously defeated the Wolves in late January on the back of some clutch Kent Bazemore blocks, as well as a legendarily poor performance from former Hawks great Jeff Teague.
With Jimmy Butler down for 4-6 weeks after surgery for a meniscus tear, the Wolves will be a little softer this time around, and this game might be surprisingly tight – especially after the hard-fought victory for Atlanta earlier this year.
But with the Wolves in the playoff hunt and Atlanta certainly not looking to win many games, this will be a likely defeat.
Prediction: Hawks lose 107-104 (22-53)
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76ers @ Hawks, 3/30/18
These two teams face off twice in a 10-day period, and the Sixers should be thoroughly in the hunt for playoff seeding.
Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons crushed Atlanta in their only previous game, a 119-109 victory for Philly.
Prediction: Hawks lose 122-110 (22-54)
Magic @ Hawks, 4/1/18
This April Fool’s Day bout is no joke in terms of best odds for the number one overall pick, as both Orlando and Atlanta should be firmly in the running at this late point in the season.
Neither team should be shooting for the stars in this game, and the Hawks won only one of the previous three meetings between these two teams, 117-110.
This will be the last game the Hawks will play against a bottom-feeder, making it their last chance to pad their loss total.
Prediction: Hawks lose 115-92 (22-55)
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Hawks @ Heat, 4/3/18
The Heat should be in the thick of the playoff race at this late point in the season, and Atlanta has split their previous two meetings with Miami this season.
With Dwyane Wade back in the fold, the Heat should be barreling into a lower seed in the Eastern Conference behind Wade’s talismanic presence.
Prediction: Hawks lose 110-95 (22-56)
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Heat @ Hawks, 4/4/18
A road/home back-to-back with Miami for the Hawks might catch the home team unawares on this night, especially as this will be Atlanta’s fourth game in five days.
Again, the Heat will likely be jostling for playoff position, but sometimes this young Hawks team can get a little frisky at home against playoff-bound teams, and this might be a perfect opportunity for the Hawks to notch a late upset and go into the offseason with a sunnier disposition than might be expected.
Prediction: Hawks win 106-99 (23-56)
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Hawks @ Wizards, 4/6/18
The Wizards will almost certainly have a playoff spot locked up at this point, but they might have a reason to play hard in this game if seeding is still up in the air.
Even if the Wiz rest their main guys, the Wizards always seem to get up against Atlanta, and the Hawks will be coasting in the late season.
Prediction: Hawks lose 94-83 (23-57)
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Hawks @ Celtics, 4/8/18
The Celtics will almost certainly have a top-2 seed locked up in the Eastern Conference, but they might still be in the mix to grab the 1 seed from the juggernaut Toronto Raptors.
Kyrie Irving might take a page from LeBron James’s gamesmanship handbook and sit out for this game – feigning disinterest because of the Raptors’ lack of playoff pedigree.
Whatever the case, the Celtics have far more talent than the Hawks do, and Boston won these two teams’ only previous meeting by a 110 to 99 margin despite 31 points from Taurean Prince.
Prediction: Hawks lose 104-85 (23-58)
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76ers @ Hawks, 4/10/18
In the Hawks’ last game of the season, there are many variables about whether or not Philadelphia will play a full regiment of their big names.
If their seeding is locked up, it is likely that Philly will rest its injury-prone studs Embiid and Simmons, possibly opening the door for Atlanta to steal one in Philips Arena on the final game of the regular season.
Next: Tank Watch 2018: The Race for the Top Pick
With a finishing flourish, Kent Bazemore notches his first career triple-double, Dennis Schröder drops a career-high 40 and rookie John Collins pops off for a 20-point, 20-rebound masterpiece – setting up a fascinating offseason with style and panache. (A man can dream, right?)