As the NBA draft lottery gets closer and closer, expectations and hot takes reach a fever pitch. The Atlanta Hawks, after their worst season since 2004-05, have the fourth-best odds to land the number one overall pick and are in the driver’s seat for a Top 5 pick in the 2018 draft.
But not every draft pick is created equal, as some of the top prospects in this draft class have noticeable gaps in their game that NBA professionals will exploit with ruthless precision.
We’ve ranked the top 8 players in this draft by best fit with the Hawks starting with the worst fit, as each player brings their own pros and cons to the team
Michael Porter Jr. – Missouri
We have already discussed the risks associated with Michael Porter Jr., as he just does not look like the top-flight prospect that almost every pundit and draftnik predict he is.
He suffered a debilitating injury that sapped much of his athleticism and explosion and upon returning to the court, he looked to be a shell of himself.
However, the injury is not the only concern with Porter Jr., his lack of passing vision and somewhat selfish playstyle is not conducive to the modern game, or what made the Hawks so great in the 2014-15 season – ball movement, off-ball movement and unselfish play.
The Hawks should not be dazzled by Porter’s pedigree and instead should draft anyone else ahead of him.
Mohamed Bamba – Texas
Mohamed Bamba’s immense 7’9” wingspan is certainly incredible, and if he develops his basketball IQ, he could be a terrifying defensive anchor at the five, similar to modern terrors such as Anthony Davis, Rudy Gobert or Joel Embiid. The Hawks have not had an extremely athletic, rebound-hound, defensive-minded center since Kevin Willis or Dikembe Mutombo prowled the middle in the 90s.
However, the direction of the modern NBA is not towards the middle but rather to the perimeter, where there will be concerns about Bamba’s ability to defend in space when switched onto smaller guards and wings.
He has also not shown much of a jump shot, which is almost requisite for bigs in today’s league. The fit with Atlanta’s John Collins, who is surely one of the only untouchables on the Hawks roster, is also questionable.
Though tantalizing, the fit might not work as well as other players, so Bamba should be lower on the Hawks’ draft board on June 15.
Wendell Carter Jr. – Duke
A gifted shooter and finisher out of Duke, Wendell Carter Jr.’s game was swallowed up by the incandescence of Marvin Baghg during the NCAA season, but Carter would work well on the Hawks in a general sense.
An athletic, intelligent big man who can space the floor, Carter would be a good fit alongside John Collins and the two could form a young core unseen in Atlanta for decades. Similar to Bridges, Carter’s floor looks to be an attractive offer.
However, his athleticism pales in comparison to Bagley’s, so his ceiling is much lower as a result. He did not show much playmaking or off-dribble-bounce on offense, so there are questions about his role as an offensive hub. On defense, more questions arise about his ability to switch and guard smaller players, as he seems to be a bit ground-bound at this point in his career.
As we’re still on the lower side of this list, Carter Jr. should be a “light buy” for the Hawks if they lake his makeup and think he could develop into a neo-Al Horford.
Trae Young – Oklahoma
Perhaps the biggest “boom or bust” prospect on this list, Trae Young out of Oklahoma could be the point guard savior of the future for the Hawks, or he could drop into basketball purgatory – both outcomes are possible at this point.
Young burst onto the scene to start the college season and he exploded for 48- and 44-point outbursts early in the year. He cooled off later in the season, though he still put out historic numbers – leading the country in points (27.4) and assists (8.7) per game.
The 19-year-old Young would immediately upgrade the Hawks’ backcourt rotation, perhaps indicating a sea change in the organization that entrenched point guard Dennis Schröder might not be long for the team. Young’s passing wizardry, ability to pull up or spot up from deep in three-point territory and scoring acumen would make the Hawks a far better offensive team right out of the gate.
Of course, there’s a drawback. Young’s defense is perhaps the worst of any prospect in the past 10 years, and he was a defensive turnstile for Oklahoma – though he had little help on the team. If the Hawks want a strong defensive core, drafting Young indicates that will likely not happen in the immediate (and might never happen).
Still though, the extreme nature of Young’s production means he might be worth a look with pick number 5 or 6.
Marvin Bagley III – Duke
Our most recent mock draft has Marvin Bagley III going to the Hawks with the 4th overall pick in the draft. This is definitely a likely scenario, as Atlanta lost the tiebreaker to the Mavericks for third-best odds overall.
Everything we say in the mock holds true, as Bagley’s supreme drive and innate athleticism make for an excellent, high-ceiling prospect. Combining Bagley with Collins up front could torture teams on both sides of the ball, but moreso on offense.
Of course, questions abound regarding Bagley’s shooting ability and defensive instincts, as neither one of those categories particularly shone in the college for Bagley. Still, that shouldn’t be enough to deter the Hawks from taking Bagley if their pick lands in the top 3 or 4.
Jaren Jackson Jr. – Michigan State
The debate between Jaren Jackson Jr. and Marvin Bagley is a bit of a toss-up at this juncture, as both players have interesting skill sets and extremely high ceilings at the NBA level.
Jackson Jr. projects to be much more of a defensive menace, as his length and shot-blocking abilities were on full display in his only season in college. In our second mock draft, we had the Hawks taking Jackson with the third overall pick, and there is little to deter us from reiterating that statement.
Jackson is young, springy and has shown a strong outside shooting stroke (though it comes with the caveat of a small sample size). Jackson would probably fit the best alongside John Collins, as both are switchable, fast and athletic on defense – and their offensive skill sets would mesh almost immediately.
If the ping-pong balls force the Hawks to pick third overall, Jackson Jr. would be a strong choice. Even if they pick 4th or 5th, if Jackson is still available, the team would do well to take a swing on him.
DeAndre Ayton – Arizona
A chiseled physical specimen, Ayton’ miniscule body fat ratio means he is already in near-peak condition – ready to rock rim in the NBA with the best of them.
Most draft boards have Ayton as the best prospect in the draft, and honestly, it’s a total coin flip. Ayton would pair with John Collins as a striking big man duo and he would become one of the Hawks’ best options on offense.
His defensive smarts have been called into question, as he did not contribute in any major way on that side of the ball. That mostly stemmed from a lack of effort, though, which will likely improve against the tougher competition in the NBA.
Ayton is surely a slam dunk selection, but with the Hawks likely not being able to attain the number one overall pick, he might just be beyond the team’s reach.
However, if they were to somehow nab him with the top pick (or second pick depending on how team’s view our next prospect), they would likely be set at the center position for many years to come.
Luka Doncic – Real Madrid
We have sung the praises of Luka Doncic, the Slovenian Slinger (a new nickname we’re trying out), many times on this site since his draft stock has risen to a fever pitch. We have written so much about him, that there is little left to say.
There are questions about his athleticism and NBA fit, to be sure, but his preternatural feel and basketball smarts make those qualms nothing more than a moot point.
We’ve had the Hawks selecting Doncic 1st and 2nd overall in various mock drafts, and the team can’t go wrong either way. A gifted passer who can also get buckets with the best of them, Luka would immediately turn the Hawks’ offense into his own plaything – finding hopeful All-Rookie first team member John Collins, Taurean Waller-Prince, Tyler Dorsey and DeAndre’ Bembry for easy buckets off of movement and pick-and-roll action.
Doncic and Ayton make for a stunning one-two punch atop this draft, and the prime position would be selecting 2nd overall. Both players are almost sure things, so putting the onus on another team allows the Hawks to select whichever player the number one overall pick holder does not.
Mikal Bridges – Villanova
Villanova’s Mikal Bridges would be an excellent fit with the Hawks, and he is probably the most polished all-around player in the Top 10 of this draft class. His floor is exceedingly high, and he could come into the league and produce for any team immediately.
Next: Atlanta Hawks Mock Draft 4.0
The Hawks will likely not want to “reach” for Bridge if their pick lands in the top 5, as he will likely be available in the 8-10 range. If the team is extremely high on him and they don’t land a top-5 pick, trading down might be worth it – as Bridge’s defensive acumen and shooting stroke would benefit the Hawks on both ends.