Well Hawks fans, the wait is finally over. After a seemingly interminable season of listless performances and immense talent gulfs versus most other teams, the Atlanta Hawks will finally get to see where they will select in the 2018 NBA Draft. The lottery is upon us!
The Atlanta Hawks franchise has rarely been a participant in the tanking sweepstakes in recent history, as the team went to 10 straight playoffs before going 34 games under .500 this season and finishing with the worst record in the Eastern Conference.
The last time the Hawks had the best lottery odds was in 2005, following a horrendous 13-69 season. Despite that terrible campaign, the team did not win the lottery, but rather scored the 2nd overall pick. The Milwaukee Bucks, who won 17 more games than the Hawks that season, got the number one overall pick.
With Coach Bud long gone, allowing the franchise to focus fully on the rebuild under the watchful eye of new head coach (and Process-truster) Lloyd Pierce, all eyes are now on how the ping-pong balls will fall on Tuesday at 7:30 p.m. EST.
We’ve outlined all the odds for where the Atlanta Hawks might select in the lottery – from number 1 overall (please, please, please) to number 7 overall (no, no, no) – as well as what players would be the best fits at those picks.
#1 Overall Pick
13.7% odds
Best Pick: DeAndre Ayton / Luka Doncic
Winning the lottery would definitely make the 2017-18 season worth it. Despite a tough year for the Hawks with very little talent on the roster, nabbing a number one overall pick in a draft with two surefire talents would definitely be a worthwhile payoff.
We have outlined our love for Luka Doncic on multiple occasions, and we’ve provided a profile of his skill set as well. The Hawks have needed a willing passer and a gifted pick-and-roll ballhandler for a while now, and Doncic would provide that in a wing-sized body with a savant-like basketball IQ.
On the other hand, DeAndre Ayton is almost certainly the “safer pick,” as his chiseled frame and NBA-ready tools would immediately improve the Hawks on the offensive end – as outlined in our profile of the Arizona big man.
Either way, winning the lottery would make all that losing moot, as the team would be able to grow organically through the draft with one of the best prospects they’ve had on the team since Al Horford was selected over 10 years ago.
#2 Overall Pick
14.2% odds
Best Pick: DeAndre Ayton / Luka Doncic
Similar to the number one overall pick, selecting second in this draft is far better than that fateful ’05 draft.
Though the positions are the same (center and small forward), the hype surrounding Ayton and Doncic is far headier than what Andrew Bogut (1st overall in ’05) and Marvin Williams (2nd overall, Hawks selection) were receiving over 10 years ago.
In this scenario, the onus would be on the team that won the lottery to choose between Ayton and Doncic, which means the Hawks could choose whichever player is left after the first overall selection is made.
Though winning the lottery is preferable, second overall is a terrific fallback option if the Hawks’ ping-pong balls don’t fall just right.
#3 Overall Pick
14.5% odds
Best Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr. / Marvin Bagley III
Other Possibilities: Trae Young / Mo Bamba / Mikal Bridges
This is where the fun begins. Though this would be a rather unsavory option for most Hawks fans, picking third overall would mean that the big guns of Ayton and Doncic are likely off the board, so GM Travis Schlenk will have his pick of any of the extremely interesting and talented prospects remaining.
Headlined by Jaren Jackson Jr. and Marvin Bagley III, who are projected as the third- and fourth-best prospects in this draft by a small margin, the Hawks will be able to shape their future with whoever they select at this spot.
As our profiles of both Jackson and Bagley expose, both players have their strengths and weaknesses, but Jackson is seemingly the “safer” bet with the third overall pick, as his two-way skill set and switchable, athletic frame make him more of a modern NBA player.
Though Jackson and Bagley are the likely options, bucket-getting point guard Trae Young and swiss army knife wing Mikal Bridges are more “outside the box” options that could completely transform the future of the Hawks franchise.
#4 Overall Pick
8.5% odds
Best Pick: Jaren Jackson Jr. / Marvin Bagley III
Other Possibilities: Trae Young / Mo Bamba / Mikal Bridges
As you can see, selecting 4th for the Hawks has a very low probability. However, stranger things have happened.
For the most part, everything said about selecting third overall applies to this spot as well, though one less gifted prospect will be available. All signs point to Jaren Jackson Jr. being the third-rated prospect in this draft (despite the frankly insane production of Bagley).
This is where the Hawks are currently slated to pick after they lost the tiebreaker with the Mavericks, and selecting Bagley here would bring in one of the highest-profile prospects the Hawks have had since Al Horford.
Again, though his upside is seemingly less than some of these younger players, the all-around polish of Mikal Bridges would be tempting at this spot – or any spot beyond the Top 2.
#5 Overall Pick
32.3% odds
Best Pick: Trae Young / Mo Bamba / Mikal Bridges
Other Possibilities: Wendell Carter Jr. / Collin Sexton / Miles Bridges
Picking 5th overall is the most likely scenario for the Hawks by percentage, and though it would be dispiriting to pick “down” after finishing with a tie for the third-worst record in the league, a top 5 pick in the NBA Draft is still extremely valuable and rare.
In this top-heavy draft especially, selecting 5th overall is much better than selecting 9th, as the prospects get far less promising beyond that magic number.
At 5th overall, both Trae Young and Mikal Bridges will most likely still be available, so those 2 prospects should be tops on the team’s list, though Mo Bamba’s immense wingspan deserves a look here as well.
Beyond that, if Schlenk and co. love the cerebral nature of Wendell Carter’s game or the explosive scoring of Collin Sexton, both of those would be gutsy choices here.
It must also be noted that while Michael Porter will likely be available here, there was something about the way he played after returning from injury in college that caused some alarm bells to ring, so the Hawks should avoid him if possible.
#6 Overall Pick
15.5% odds
Best Pick: Trae Young / Mo Bamba / Mikal Bridges
Other Possibilities: Wendell Carter Jr. / Collin Sexton / Miles Bridges
Though one of Young or Bamba will likely be off the table by this point, if either one of them is still available, the Hawks should not hesitate to take them here at sixth overall.
Selecting Bridges here would also be a terrific choice, as his athletic frame, stellar length, defensive acumen and shooting stroke make him a near “five-tool player” in today’s NBA.
If he’s still available, Bamba could also transform the Hawks porous paint defense if selected here by providing the team with a terrifying rim protector not seen in Atlanta since the 90s – when Dikembe Mutombo patrolled the hardwood and swatted shots with reckless abandon. Furthermore, he’s been working on his perimeter shot this offseason, which is a good sign for his work ethic at the next level.
#7 Overall Pick
1.3% odds
Best Pick: Trae Young / Mo Bamba / Mikal Bridges
Other Possibilities: Wendell Carter Jr. / Collin Sexton / Miles Bridges
If the Hawks pull the 7th overall pick with only a 1.3 percent chance that would be… less than ideal.
After a season of losing, selecting 7th overall might seem like something of a failure, but teams have done more with less. Just look at the Hawks last year!
With a non-lottery pick at 19th overall, Atlanta selected high-flying rookie sensation John Collins, whose production was so good that he will likely make an All-Rookie First Team. So never fear, Schlenk has proven that he can draft high-upside players anywhere in the draft.
At 7th overall, Mikal Bridges will likely still be available. Since we are extremely high on him here at SDS (if that wasn’t clear already), that would be our choice. Wendell Carter Jr., Collin Sexton, and Miles Bridges (no relation to Mikal) will also likely be available here too, so Schlenk and co. can again dictate what direction they would like to take the franchise with this pick.
Must Read: Ranking Top 8 Lottery Picks for Hawks by Best Fit
So there you have it. The Hawks can select no lower than 7th overall with their first round draft pick, which is a pretty nice position to be in.
In a draft that is stacked with a clear Top 7-8 prospects, the Hawks have a great chance of nabbing the next franchise cornerstone to pair with John Collins and Taurean Prince.
Next: 4 Possible NBA Draft Steals for Hawks
The NBA Draft Lottery is on Tuesday, 5/13/18, at 7:30 p.m. EST. Catch it on ESPN or the WatchESPN app.