Weighing the pros and cons of the Atlanta Hawks winning the number one pick in the NBA Draft Lottery.
Do the Atlanta Hawks want to win the NBA Draft Lottery?
On paper, this may seem like a silly question. The team has good odds, an elite young core, and a bright future, adding the first overall pick seems like a no-brainer, right?
Well, this is no normal year. If the fact that the first round of the playoffs is kicking off while Halloween candy is in stores doesn’t indicate that to you, I don’t know what else will. But besides the COVID pandemic and all the repercussions of that, this isn’t a normal year for the draft either.
The 2020 draft class is seen as one of the weakest in recent memory, perhaps of this century. There is no sure-fire, blue-chip prospect coming out of college like Zion Williamson, Luka Doncic, Ben Simmons, or Karl-Anthony Towns, although the class does redeem itself a bit by being very deep.
The skill/ceiling gap between the projected top picks like LaMelo Ball or Anthony Edwards and mid-first round picks like Aaron Nesmith or Kira Lewis Jr is incredibly smaller than usual. That also may explain the lack of fanfare surrounding this draft lottery, and leads me back to the intro quesiton:
Do the Atlanta Hawks want to win the lottery?
If the Hawks pick in the 5-8 range, they will get more back for their buck. While getting a player like Deni Avdija or Devin Vassell with one of those picks, they’ll save a hefty amount of change.
Per Spotrac, the first overall pick (Zion) will make around eight million per year on his first contract, while the fifth pick (Darius Garland) will make just five and the eigth pick four. (That’s based on 2019’s rookie scale but it should be about the same for this year.)
In addition to saving some money, the Hawks could find a better fit later on in the draft. If they win the top pick, they may feel compelled to draft LaMelo or Edwards, two players whose fits in Atlanta are iffy, at best.
The aforementioned Advija and Vassell, as well as Killian Hayes and Isaac Okoro, fit better into the Hawks’ win-now mentality. Vassell and Okoro both bring top-shelf perimeter defense while Advija and Hayes can be solid secondary playmakers next to Trae Young.
So do the Atlanta Hawks want to win the lottery?
Yes… BUT.
They should trade back if they get it. In a perfect world, they get the top pick and promptly flip it to a team in the back half of the lottery picking up a sturdy veteran or future pick in addition to the pick swap.
All this was probably getting ahead of ourselves, as the Hawks have just a 12.5 percent chance of winning the top pick, but I guess it turns into a win-win scenario.
If they do get the first pick, they can select the players the front office (who know much more than this YouTube scouter) want most, or they can trade back and take a value pick.
It’s in the ping pong balls hands now.
Do you want the Atlanta Hawks to win the NBA Draft Lottery?