Dyson Daniels is on track for a record he desperately wants to avoid

Dyson Daniels is shooting 10.9% from beyond the arc this season, which would be an NBA record for the lowest three point percentage of all time (among qualifying players).

It’s been a struggle for Daniels this season. After winning Most Improved Player and finishing second in Defensive Player of the Year voting last season, expectations were sky high for the fourth-year Australian wing this season. He even shot a career-high 34.0% from deep last year, which was enough for fans to believe his shot was on the rise. With a year or two of development, why couldn’t Daniels be an OG Anunoby-type of player?

Like Natasha Bedingfield, his story remains unwritten, but we now have the answer as to why Daniels might flop relative to expectations. If he can’t shoot the three ball, teams will struggle to create effective offense with him on the court. The Hawks are no exception, even though they don’t feature a single non-shooter in the rotation.

Daniels needs to rediscover his shot to avoid this brutal record

Daniels’ DARKO, the most reliable impact metric available, ranks him as the 241st-best offensive player in the league. Not great. 

This figure becomes worse when you realize he is a very strong playmaker. He ranks in the top 16% of shooting guards in time spent on ball, potential assists, assist/turnover ratio, and rim assists. Without Trae Young, Daniels has done a remarkable job of keeping the offense afloat with his simple-yet-effective passing.

Despite being one of the best playmakers at the two guard position, his shooting has tanked any offensive value Daniels brings to the table. His true shooting percentage has plummeted to 5% below league average despite shooting well from two point land. Perhaps most embarrassingly, Daniels’ “gravity” score, a metric released by the NBA this season that attempts to quantify the impact of shooting, is an abysmal -4.7 per game – lower than Russell Westbrook.

Daniels has had issues with his confidence this season, and the last thing he needs is an embarrassing record that may never be broken. 

Fans can only help but wonder, “Why doesn’t he just stop shooting?” The reason is what former Milwaukee Director of Basketball Research Seth Partnow dubbed “the Roberson effect” (subscription required) in his book, The Midrange Theory, named after legendary non-shooter Andre Roberson. 

If a perimeter player is too hesitant to shoot the ball, the defense is rewarded for simply not guarding them from deep. Even when you make every three you attempt in a single game, if you only shoot 1-2 a night, the impact is marginal in the grand scheme of the game. If the most you risk is six flukish points, why not just leave Roberson alone and camp in the paint? Likewise, if Daniels doesn’t shoot, his offensive impact only becomes worse.

Daniels must find his form before the season ends to avoid this record he so desperately wishes to avoid. With Kyle Korver in the organization and a history of developing poor shooters into marksmen, it’s truly strange that Daniels has struggled so mightily this season.

Hawks fans can only hope he finds his form soon, meaning we can look back and laugh at this temporary struggle. If he can't turn it around, however, serious questions will be raised.