Keegan Murray signed a 5-year, $140 million extension yesterday, which has all but guaranteed that Dyson Daniels’s extension will exceed $30 million annually.
Murray, the fourth pick of the 2022 draft, averaged 12.4 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 0.8 steals, and 0.9 blocks on 34.4% from three and below-average efficiency in his third year as a pro. This was a regression in multiple aspects from the power forward, who earned fifth place in Rookie of the Year voting as a rookie after shooting a 41.4% from beyond the arc.
While these stats don’t jump off the page, Murray is a high-IQ role player who could develop into an above-average playoff starter if he can rediscover his shot from deep. Daniels, however, is clearly better than Murray at this stage in their careers.
Daniels will get paid upwards of $30 million annually
Daniels averaged 14.1 points, 5.9 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 3.0 steals, and 0.7 blocks on 34.0% from three. Beyond the stat sheet, Daniels is the best perimeter defender in the league and could develop into one of the greatest defenders of all time. While Daniels’s statistical profile nearly mirrors Murray’s, he has the defensive edge and is two years younger than Murray.
The extension deadline for Daniels and Murray is October 20th, one day before the start of the NBA season. This week is a busy one for front offices across the league, as teams almost always tie down prospects of Daniels’s caliber to long-term deals before their contract expires.
The Atlanta Hawks do not necessarily have to extend Daniels. He will be a restricted free agent this offseason, allowing the team to match any contract other teams offer Daniels. Allowing him to hit free agency, however, would be a massive gamble.
Daniels is one of the premier prospects in the league - just about every team could use Dyson Daniels in their backcourt. By allowing his contract to expire and enabling opposing teams to make offers, the Hawks risk a team with nothing to lose offering the 2025 Most Improved Player a contract he cannot refuse. While Atlanta could match this contract, it would undoubtedly be more expensive than if an extension were hammered out this week.
Various salary cap experts have predicted anywhere between $23.5 million and $31 million annually for Daniels’s contract of the future. With Murray’s deal sitting at $28 million, expect the Hawks’ star defender to fall in the higher end of this range, if not above it.