When Trae Young was revealed to be out for at least a month with an MCL sprain, the league counted the Atlanta Hawks out. The team has historically struggled without their star point guard, in part due to an overreliance on him, and in part due to a lack of supporting talent. This year didn’t seem any different, as the team had no NBA-tested point guards below Young in the rotation.
But against all odds, literally, the Hawks have turned their season around without Young, soaring from a 1-3 record to 6-5 despite dealing with other nagging injuries. In the seven games without Young, Atlanta has been the third-best team relative to the Vegas spread per Cleaning the Glass, finishing an average of 7.1 points above the spread.
An identity shift is responsible for this success (and can continue when Young returns)
Atlanta has embraced a defense-first identity with Young out, and this has been quite successful. The club’s defensive rating dropped from 119.7 to 110.5, jumping from a bottom-ten to top-ten defense in the league.
Despite Young’s defensive reputation, however, his presence wasn’t the primary factor in the Hawks’ defensive turnaround. Sure, giving his minutes to Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, and Keaton Wallace provides the team more talent to work with on the defensive end, but the real change has been in the paint.
The Hawks were in the bottom 25% of the NBA in limiting paint opportunities with Young, but without him, they have been about league average. Limiting opportunities was just the first step, however, as opponents are shooting much worse at the rim than before.
To illustrate, Atlanta played the Orlando Magic and Toronto Raptors both with and without Young. With Young healthy, the squad allowed a dismal 79.7% of rim attempts to convert. Without Young, this figure fell to 55.1%.
Of course, Young isn’t to blame for this; the Hawks have emphasized their interior defense after getting dominated down low early in the season. They have given Mouhamed Gueye more minutes and played more jumbo lineups. They have also done a better job of supporting Kristaps Porzingis with agile defenders to alleviate his defensive woes.
If the Hawks can integrate Young into this system, maintaining a strong emphasis on interior defense while adding Young’s offensive skill set, the team will be in an excellent position come playoff time. While Young’s injury is devastating for him and the team, there are silver linings to be found in any tragedy. If the Hawks can continue their enhanced interior defense upon Young's return, perhaps we may look back at this injury as a key moment in the developmental arc of this team.