The Atlanta Hawks are set to move on from one of five remaining players from their run to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2021 in Clint Capela.
Armed with a plan set in motion during the 2020 NBA Draft, only to have Capela lead the NBA in rebounding in his first season in Atlanta, the Hawks are ready to usher Onyeka Okongwu into the starting lineup.
And since Capela’s two-year, $46 million contract is expiring, a trade makes sense.
“The Hawks nonetheless would like to find Capela a new home before his contract expires after this season, sources say, with Atlanta confident in the long-term starting ability of Onyeka Okongwu,” Jake Fischer wrote for The Stein Line on December 19.
This is not surprising. The Hawks are already said to have held trade talks about Capela with multiple teams, including the New Orleans Pelicans and New York Knicks.
Fischer also previously reported the Hawks prefer Okongwu over Capela in potential trade talks.
The Hawks resisted moving Capela in the trade that sent Dejounte Murray to the Pelicans and brought back, among other pieces, breakout starter Dyson Daniels and Larry Nance Jr., who has not played much but has performed well when called upon.
That last part could be an impetus for the Hawks' mindset with less than two months until the trade deadline, though we have yet to hear of current talks with any teams.
The Hawks have veteran Cody Zeller. But he has been away from the team and could be traded too.
Perhaps trading Capela creates an opportunity for Zeller, though his absence has come at the expense of building camaraderie. After that, the Hawks only have oft-injured 2023 second-round draft pick Mouhamed Gueye and can have Jalen Johnson moonlight as a small-ball center.
Hawks potentially trading Clint Capela seems like no-brainer
This is a no-brainer decision on paper. Replace the aging veteran with the younger, highly-draft-pedigree prospect.
He is coming off a 10-point, 9-rebound performance against the San Antonio Spurs.
Capela added 1 assist and 1 block with 3 turnovers. A near-double-double is nothing to sneeze at. But it was not enough, though it would have taken a Herculean effort to outdo Victor Wembanyama.
However, Capela has been one of the most impactful Hawks this season. He has the fifth-highest on-off differential on the team, per Cleaning The Glass.
He ranked even higher before the last four outings and is still No. 2 defensively.
The Hawks are 1-3 in their last four games. In a bit of a chicken-or-the-egg case study, Capela has had a negative plus-minus in each of the losses and was a plus in their lone victory. The trend holds for him over the season, too.
The Hawks are 13-3 in games where Capela finishes with a neutral plus-minus or better. They are 1-11 in the games he posts a negative plus-minus.
He is not the sole cause of those losses. But he is not helping the get over that hump, either.
The Hawks do not rely on Capela for his scoring and even boast a better record when he scores fewer than 10 points in a game (9-6) than when he meets or exceeds that mark (5-8) this season.
However, Capela does not have a counterpunch in matchups where he does not have a clear physical advantage inside.
That is where pivoting to Okongwu makes sense
Hawks could take big chance ahead of trade
The Hawks would be banking on the most dangerous thing in sports – potential – if they followed through on their plans. Okongwu missed the loss to the Spurs, and he had just 8 points in his last appearance, a loss to the Milwaukee Bucks on December 11.
Before that, though, the former No. 6 overall pick of the 2020 NBA Draft posted eight straight games with at least 10 points.
He scored just 10 points one time and the Hawks went 7-1 during that stretch.
The Hawks have gone 10-5 when Okongwu scores in double figures and are 3-7 in the games he falls short of that mark. He does fall victim to the same plus-mins trend as Capela, though, and the Hawks would also be trading defense and rebounding for offense.
Okongwu has the worst defensive on-off differential among the team’s regular contributors (third-worst overall among that group).
He has recorded double-digit rebounds 34 times in his career.
Capela snagged double-digit boards 48 times last season alone and has not done so fewer than 45 times in a single season during his Hawks tenure. The size tradeoff is also a factor with the smaller Okongwu boasting better athleticism while being shorter with a shorter wingspan.
In situations like these, it can be helpful to follow the money. Capela is on an expiring contract while Okongwu is in Year 1 of a four-year, $61.9 million pact.
The Hawks are 17-19 in Okongwu’s career starts. They are 153-147 with Capela.
That mark with Capela looks worse over the last two seasons at 80-84, but Okongwu is 11-15 as a starter in that same window. That is why, if they decide to move on from Capela to elevate Okongwu, they are taking a leap of faith. Can Okongwu repeat Dyson Daniels’ pattern?