The increased financial restrictions imposed by the new CBA have led to a slight hiccup in the seemingly ever-increasing NBA salary figures. Trae Young is the first star to fall victim to this trend.
After a promising rookie season, Trae Young quickly became one of the league's brightest young stars. He earned an All-Star appearance in just his second year as a pro, dropping an otherworldly 29.1 points and 9.3 assists per game. In his third season, Young somehow continued to defy expectations by leading the Atlanta Hawks to the Eastern Conference Finals, where Atlanta entered Game 5 tied 2-2 with the eventual Finals Champions.
Atlanta's Finals hopes had a tragic end when Young fell to injury in the series. Still, the season was a massive success. The Hawks undoubtedly had their star of the future, and they had an exciting young core supporting him. Young would sign a max contract extension the following offseason.
Unfortunately, for Atlanta, this would come crashing down. Their exciting young core did not pan out, leaving Young as the sole bright spot in an otherwise tumultuous era of Hawks basketball. Through this turmoil, Young experienced a statistical plateau. While his assist numbers have consistently improved, his sophomore-year scoring remains his career high. His efficiency has also stagnated, only topping his 2019-20 true shooting percentage once.
The Hawks have clearly noticed this decline and have decided not to offer Young his max contract extension of $229 million over four years just yet. He has a player option for next season, opening the possibility of becoming an unrestricted free agent next offseason. There has been no indication, however, that either party is unhappy with their situation.
What we are seeing unfold is a classic contract season scenario. If Young can prove he's worth a max, he'll get it. If not, the two parties will have a difficult conversation in the future.
Will Trae prove he's a max level player this season?
It is hard to blame Young too harshly for this statistical drop-off. He had no realistic path to playoff relevance with the Hawks teams of late, and he has carried a substantial share of Atlanta's offensive burden. Players in this situation usually experience either a decline in stats or the generation of new "empty-calorie" stats. While his statistical profile isn't as inspiring as it once was, Young has certainly improved as a player since the 2021 season.
Using the eye test, Young is as valuable a player as ever. His tantalizing combination of scoring, ball handling, passing, and, perhaps most critically, durability has been the sole reason why Atlanta has remained at a Play-In level recently. It is hard to imagine a world where the Hawks would have performed significantly better by replacing Young with a random max (but not supermax) contract player.
Young was finally given a supporting cast talented enough to make a deep postseason run this offseason. With these tools at his disposal, there is only one excuse left: that Young hasn't had the reps playing with his new teammates to play at a high level. After a couple of months of the regular season, however, even this excuse will be invalid.
Personally, I think he deserves the max, even if his annual salary makes me wince. The team stands no chance without him in the short term. Long-term, you just don’t find players as talented as Trae Young. He isn't perfect, but he is enough for Atlanta to make waves in the playoffs.