After an offseason filled with promise, the Atlanta Hawks fell flat on their face to start the season. They lost three of their first four games, including an embarrassing blowout loss in their season opener against the Toronto Raptors. As pundits retracted their lofty expectations for the NBA’s new favorite underdog, Hawks fans understood this was a temporary setback.
Beneath these losses lay a critical weakness holding the team back: transition defense. Opponents scored an average of 21.0 fast break points per game, which would lead the league if Hawks’ opponents were classified as a team. In contrast, the Hawks notched a below-average 14.8 transition PPG. It’s hard to win games when you give opponents an extra six points in transition.
This trend has flipped on its head in the past four games, however, as the Hawks have allowed just 14.0 fast break PPG. This would place as the seventh-best defensive mark in the league if maintained over the course of the year. To make matters even better, Atlanta has simultaneously thrived in transition offense, leaping to an elite 20.8 PPG.
The net change in transition PPG between games 1-4 and 5-8 is 13.0 points and explains the team’s remarkable recovery from the depths of the Eastern Conference without Trae Young.
The Hawks’ floor has risen substantially if this improvement is sustainable
The Hawks still have a few areas to improve on moving forward, particularly their abysmally poor rebounding. As their 3-1 record over the past four games suggests, however, the fast break problem was the most critical to address.
Thankfully, it was also the easiest problem to solve. There is nuance to transition defense, such as how you match up and who prioritizes recovering on defense vs crashing the glass. But the vast majority of a team’s success in this regard comes down to a simple question: Is the team making an active effort to get back on defense? This rings particularly true in Atlanta’s case, as the squad wasn’t even turning the ball over regularly. They just made it too easy for opponents.
The team has made the necessary adjustments to move forward and maintain a respectable record during Young’s absence. While the fast break defense will probably take a dip upon Young’s return, the overall team improvement will be enough to enable the Hawks to make the postseason run they foresaw when building this team.