The Atlanta Hawks are the hottest team in the NBA at the moment, immediately cruising to a 10-game win streak after subbing CJ McCollum into the starting lineup for Zaccharie Risacher.
When the swap occurred, Risacher was the bigger point of discussion over McCollum. After all, he was the first overall pick two years ago, while McCollum was a mere expiring salary Atlanta acquired with the intention of letting him walk in free agency. Ten games later, however, it is clear that McCollum’s promotion was a decision made independent of Risacher’s struggles.
Before the lineup change was made, the starting five with McCollum in for Risacher was by far Atlanta’s most effective lineup with a serious sample size, posting a +25.1 net rating over 139 possessions. While this was worth celebrating, I was skeptical that this dominance would hold up over increased time and against starting-caliber competition, but boy was I wrong.
The Hawks’ new starting five is on fire
Per Cleaning the Glass, the new starting lineup has been overperforming its previous high mark with a whopping +31.1 net rating over 456 possessions. To nearly triple the sample size while simultaneously improving an already outlier-level net rating is quite the feat.
It is important to note that, while the sample size is beginning to stabilize, the Hawks have faced their worst stretch of competition as of late. Dean Oliver of ESPN measured that Jalen Johnson has had the easiest schedule since the trade deadline when accounting for players missing time. This certainly helped Atlanta maintain its remarkable dominance, but it doesn’t fully explain the 96th-percentile net rating from the starting five.
The dominance can be explained by two overarching improvements: rebounding and defense.
With the starting five on the floor, the Hawks’ offensive rebounding rate jumps from 26.8% to 31.1% (from 30th to 70th percentile), their DREB rate increases from 71.5% to 78.8% (60th to 88th percentile), and their EFG allowed decreases from 54.6% to 50.3% (48th to 80th percentile). This is a fancy way to say that, when Atlanta rolls out this lineup, their rebounding jumps from below average to excellent, and their defense leaps from average to excellent.Â
The Hawks were already a solid team with a strong offense. With this added boost to the defense and rebounding, the squad has been able to jump from the depths of the Play-In tournament to within striking distance of the six seed.