The Atlanta Hawks won the offseason by poaching the rights to New Orleans’ 2026 first round pick on draft night, but the Pelicans have quietly put together a five-game win streak. Consequently, their odds in the lottery dropped from first to fifth.
The Pelicans’ gambit to trade up for Derik Queen was universally recognized as a horrible move, but there still is a path for New Orleans to save face – having a successful season.
The Pels were anything but successful to start the season. Dejounte Murray remains out from his Achilles tear last season, and Zion Williamson’s impact is limited by his heartbreaking injury problems. They regularly start two rookies at point guard and center – the two positions notorious for taking time to develop into.
But against all odds, this young Pelicans team strung together five consecutive wins. While this doesn’t mean they’ll surge into the playoff race, a climb up the standings makes the Hawks’ draft asset exponentially more volatile.
If the Pelicans stay out of the top four, the pick is a much riskier asset
The lottery odds are relatively flat for a top-four pick, but there is a quick drop off after. For example, if the Hawks held the third-best lottery odds, there is a 93% chance the pick will end in the top six. That is essentially a guaranteed starting-caliber player with an average front office behind the wheel.
If the Hawks’ odds drop to five, however, the odds of a top-five pick drop from 67.0% to 43.3%, and the most likely outcome is seventh. While this is still a good draft asset, this is a much less certain range of the draft where it is easier to whiff on a prospect.
The kicker is that just one less win would vault the Pelicans from fifth to third. The race to the bottom of the league is as competitive as ever with a loaded 2026 draft class, but the Pelicans have no incentive to lose. Teams like the Nets, Pacers, and Wizards will soon take active tanking measures that include extended rest for star players and trading veterans who are playing too well.
Despite the five-game streak, I don’t think this Pelicans team is remotely dangerous in a Play-In setting. But to be a bottom-three – or even bottom-five – team in this league requires hands-on involvement to ensure you drop games.
Without any incentive to lose, the Pelicans are bound to gradually rise up the standings. In a year where tanking is so overt that owners are preparing to discuss yet another round of anti-tanking reform, I like their odds of landing out of the top-five.
This raises an important question for the Onsi Saleh: Is the pick still untouchable?