Hawks' greatest wish is close to being granted as tanking season begins

The 2026 NOP/MIL first round swap the Atlanta Hawks hold is even better than Hawks fans expected.

The Hawks acquired the asset during the 2025 draft, when New Orleans traded the pick to move up from 23rd to 13th. This move was widely considered one of the worst trades in recent memory, and almost certainly the most lopsided draft day trade. 

Everyone expected the Pelicans to be bad this season. New Orleans finished with the fourth-worst record in the league and made no noticeable improvements. The team has been struck by injury yet again, with Zion Williamson missing over 33% of games and Dejounte Murray still out from last year’s Achilles tear. They also had a critical loss against the Indiana Pacers to secure their last-place spot for the time being.

Still, it is surprising to see New Orleans hold the worst record past the midway point of the season. Other lottery teams have an incentive to tank; the Pelicans don’t. This means the Pels have been so bad that they are being outperformed by teams actively trying to lose. Talk about a depressing season.

What Hawks fans didn’t expect was for the Bucks to struggle too. Milwaukee has Giannis Antetokounmpo on the roster, who is still a top-five player in basketball. No matter how bad the rest of the team is, you just expect a player as good as Antetokounmpo to will the team to victory.

Of course, this is not what has happened this season. Myles Turner, the Bucks’ marquee free agent acquisition, has struggled mightily. Damian Lillard was cut after tearing his Achilles tendon last postseason. Kyle Kuzma is, well, Kyle Kuzma. Even with the emergence of Ryan Rollins, Milwaukee has the eighth-worst record in the league after Dallas went on a three-game winning streak. Who knows how far the team could plummet as locker room concerns swirl.

Atlanta has the best odds in the NBA at a generational prospect

Because the pick is a swap between two lottery teams, Atlanta has the top odds at the first overall pick.

New Orleans, leading the charge with the worst record in the NBA, gives Atlanta a 14.0% chance at the top pick. Milwaukee provides another 6% chance, improving Atlanta’s overall odds to 20%. Even better, the worst possible spot the Hawks could land as of today is the fifth pick.

There is still plenty of basketball to be played this season, and teams will only get more desperate in their tanking efforts. It is reasonable to assume the Pels and Bucks will experience a moderate rise up the standings, but at the midway point of the season, neither team has given the league much reason to believe in them.