Kevin Pelton of ESPN released his preseason predictions yesteray, which had the Atlanta Hawks finishing seventh in the Eastern Conference after their renowned offseason. What is more ridiculous is that the Pacers, Celtics, and Bucks were all projected above Atlanta, despite losing key stars to injuries and offseason moves.
Pelton’s model was highly accurate in predicting last season, but it missed the mark with the Hawks’ projections. In his defense of this position, Pelton argued that the Hawks' offseason was “perhaps not transformative in the short term.” He did concede that he is more confident than the model that the team will avoid the play-in, but he does not expect a top-four finish in the East.
This is truly insulting to the team. Atlanta’s young core finally became clear last season, with Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, and Zaccharie Risacher all impressing in various roles around Trae Young. This optimistic play, however, did not necessarily translate to wins. Johnson suffered an injury halfway through the season, while Risacher was still a rookie whose impact increased remarkably as he gained experience over the course of the season.
This offseason, the team filled the ancillary roles with elite talent, bringing in Kristaps Porzingis to round out the starting lineup. Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Luke Kennard filled the bench voids behind Atlanta’s elite backcourt. This is a roster ready to compete in the East, yet it is only projected to rise two spots in the weakest East in recent memory.
The rankings are unjustifiable considering the state of the rest of the East
The Boston Celtics and Indiana Pacers are ranked above the Hawks despite both teams losing multiple star players. Both teams lost their primary stars, Jayson Tatum and Tyrese Haliburton, to Achilles tears. Tatum and Haliburton truly spearheaded their respective offenses and cannot be replaced. Both teams lost their starting centers, Porzingis and Myles Turner, who shared a similarly irreplaceable skill set.
The Hawks, on the contrary, acquired three talented players while presumably getting a better version of Daniels and Risacher. Pelton doubled down, saying he would be surprised if Atlanta finished top four in the East, but this is similarly inexplicable. There is a clear top four in the conference: Cleveland, New York, Orlando, and Atlanta. How you rank those four is up to you, but nearly every projection has agreed on this top four. To rank the decimated Pacers and Celtics over the Hawks is foolish, barring horrible injury misfortune.
The Hawks still have to prove themselves, and that may be why the model is wary of backing the squad at this early stage. Still, there is no reason to believe this team has not taken massive strides from last season, despite what the model may lead you to believe.