Larry Nance Jr. signed with the Cleveland Cavaliers this offseason after one quietly productive season in an Atlanta Hawks uniform. Nance Jr. averaged 8.5 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 1.3 stocks (steals and blocks) in just under 20 minutes of action a night. He wasn’t a game-changing player, but he was a valuable innings-eater (and overwhelming fan-favorite) on an injury-riddled Hawks team.
It was tempting to bring Nance Jr. back for this season. He brings a positive locker room impact, and his innings-eating from last season could be valuable if the injury-prone Hawks struggled with injury yet again (they have). But the Hawks trusted in their development, opting to fill Nance Jr.’s vacant rotation spot with Mo Gueye and Asa Newell.
This was the correct move. Nance’s statistical output has fallen off a cliff this season. He’s scoring just over half of his per-minute total from last season (15.8 to 8.6 points per 36 min), while his true shooting percentage has dropped by a whopping 20%.
Nance fell from a rotation player to vet presence in an offseason
Onsi Saleh has yet to make a mistake as the lead decision-maker in Atlanta, and this marks yet another victory to add to his resume. The decision to move on from Nance Jr. is the type of move that rarely makes headlines, but failing to handle a situation like this correctly can handicap a team.
The Houston Rockets gave Clint Capela a three-year, $21 million deal after following the logic Saleh avoided in this move. Houston identified a lack of a reliable third-string center in their center-heavy system. Instead of making a savvy move on the margins, however, the Rockets paid a premium price for the proven commodity.
It is easy to fall into this trap; some would even argue that this logic is the correct process to follow. But Rockets management will regret the move to sign the big man after they are forced to trade a pick to get off his contract, or when their roster options are limited due to Capela’s effect on the cap structure.
Instead of taking the “safe” option, Saleh bet on his unproven talent. He signed Caleb Houstan, drafted Asa Newell, and elevated Mo Gueye’s spot in the depth chart. Houston and Newell have impressed in their (very) limited roles, but Gueye has broken out as one of the most fun to watch young defenders in the league.
Gueye might not be ready for a substantial playoff role this year, but Nance Jr. wouldn’t have been much of an upgrade. Instead, the Hawks saved valuable cap space that was used to acquire Kristaps Porzingis, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Luke Kennard.
Winning on the margins is the sign of an elite GM. Anyone can luck into a massive win in the trade market or in free agency, but consistently nailing the difficult decisions takes talent. The Hawks are in good hands with Saleh at the helm.