The Atlanta Hawks’ promising start following the 2025 trade deadline is a mere memory.
After a three-game winning streak, they have lost two straight and five of their last six contests.
They remain fairly secure in their Play-In Tournament viability. But that could change if their current trend persists.
Unfortunately for the Hawks, their biggest issue may be unavoidable.
The Hawks have started second-year big man Mouhamed Gueye at power forward, and the results have not been encouraging on a macro level. The Hawks’ make-shift starting lineup has a minus-6.3 net efficiency differential in 176 qualifying possessions, per Cleaning The Glass.
They are not locked into this group.
But the alternative is breaking up what has been a productive group of newcomers Caris LeVert and Georges Niang alongside starters Dyson Daniels, Trae Young, and Onyeka Okongwu.
That group boasts a plus-22.9 net differential in 88 possessions, a sample size to draw any conclusions about but enough to warrant further exploration. It does not solve the issue for the pseudo-starting lineup, though.
Gueye has the best defensive on-off differential in that group, ranking the 98th percentile.
His offensive differential ranks in the ninth percentile, though. As with any metric, this is not a perfect way to gauge Gueye’s performance.
Dyson Daniels has the worst overall on-off differential among the starters. But one would be hard-pressed to find a player more important to the Hawks having any chance defensively than Daniels beyond Jalen Johnson.
However, the metrics match the eye test.
Since the trade deadline – which accounts for the addition of LeVert and Niang to the rotation – Gueye is 5.8 points per game.
His defensive game is mitigated by his lack of offensive output, especially when the threat of his three-point range is not yet respected. His shortcomings are only highlighted as a starter, which is why he fittingly has played the fourth-fewest minutes since the deadline.
The problem is that there are not many if any better alternatives.
Larry Nance Jr. would be the obvious choice, one that would allow Gueye to revert to a reserve role that better utilizes his current skill set and level.
However, he has been sidelined by a knee injury since February 10 and could be lost for the season as he rehabs from a fractured knee. Nance also dealt with a wrist injury earlier in the season.
Zaccharie Risacher is the only player beyond those in that effective sub-package averaging double-digit points since the trade deadline, so he is not the issue.
Gueye is a young player in an unenviable spot, taking over for a high-ceiling starter like Johnson while the Hawks are thin at his position. That aspect does not help the Hawks, though, as they continue their push for the postseason.