Hawks’ surprise improvement comes with one drawback Atlanta didn’t see coming

Onyeka Okongwu has had one of the greatest shooting improvements in NBA history, transforming from a complete non-shooter over his first three seasons to one of the best sharpshooting centers in the league over his 5.5-season career. This, however, has created a major flaw in Okongwu’s game: he is no longer consistent.

Dean Oliver, who is arguably the father of modern NBA analytics, released his inconsistency rankings for the league this season using his new metric, net points, and Okongwu ranked as the ninth-most inconsistent player in the league, according to Oliver. The Southern California product has had 14 good games (>3 net points), 23 neutral games (between 3 and -3 net points), and 13 bad games (<-3 net points).

Okongwu’s inconsistencies stem from three primary areas: shooting, offensive rebounding, and turnovers. All of these sources, however, are merely symptoms of his move to the perimeter.

Okongwu must gain experience in his role and solve the holes in his game

By virtue of shooting more threes, Okongwu has become a much more volatile player, and the most obvious cause is three point shooting variance.

Simply put, when you shoot more threes, you are less consistent. Jumpers fall at a lower rate than interior shots, and players are prone to catching fire or losing confidence after seeing the result of their first few shots.

This doesn’t mean he isn’t an efficient offensive player; in fact, Okongwu is the Hawks’ franchise career leader in true shooting percentage. Instead, his deep shot has made him less consistent than when he lived at the rim and in floater range.

Three point shooting brings more inconsistency than just in the shot variance, however. As a big man spacing the floor, Okongwu is no longer in a position to grab offensive rebounds.

Throughout his career, the Chino Hills legend has consistently ranked in the top quarter of bigs in OREB%, peaking as high as the 85th percentile when he didn’t take threes. But his new role has brought a drastic change; Okongwu fell from the 75th to the 27th percentile in this department from last season to this year.

Okongwu was never an elite offensive rebounder, but he certainly punched above his weight. Now that he lives on the perimeter, this strength of his is no longer available to Atlanta.

Okongwu has -125.0 cumulative net points as a byproduct of his turnovers committed, which comes out to -2.5 per game. This is a critical blow to his overall effectiveness, but it shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise.

Quin Snyder has spoken about OO’s changed role in multiple press conferences, and he often stresses the playmaking burden placed upon Okongwu. Indeed, Okongwu’s assist percentage has more than doubled over the past two seasons, rising from the bottom quarter to the top quarter of playmaking big men. He’s also increased his AST:USG ratio, indicating he is passing the ball more relative to how often he shoots.

Of course, with this drastic increase in playmaking comes an expected increase in turnovers. Okongwu, however, could clean up some of his mistakes. He had a similar jump in playmaking burden last season, but his 11.2% TOV rate remained identical from 2023-24 to 24-25. Without Trae Young to run the offense, Atlanta has been more turnover-prone in general, and Okongwu is leading this charge.

While you would expect the turnover problem to resolve with increased experience and supporting talent, his shooting and offensive rebounding are unlikely to magically improve or become more consistent. Okongwu is still an incredible player, but he is a different player than Atlanta expected when they drafted him.

This is the double-edged sword you face when playing stretch five; the offense is properly spaced, but at what cost?