While the Atlanta Hawks had an A+ offseason, the front office cannot rest yet. Trae Young, Kristaps Porzingis, and Dyson Daniels are eligible for extensions, and Young and Porzingis have the potential to be unrestricted free agents this offseason.
While it is unlikely any of these players will leave Atlanta, rising star GM Onsi Saleh faces a challenge in signing them while maintaining financial flexibility. Porzingis's situation is particularly interesting, as the former All-Star is eligible for a greater extension next year.
Atlanta has restrictions on re-signing Porzingis for six months after he was traded from Boston. He can sign a deal up to three years, $116 million now, but on January 7th, this could increase to four years, $192.7 million.
A low-risk contract for both parties is possible in 2026
Considering Atlanta's financial situation and Porzingis's health, his extension is likely to go one of two ways. Porzingis can bet on himself, demanding a higher wage over a shorter period of time to prove to the Hawks he deserves a long-term deal at a high salary. Alternatively, Porzingis could sign a safer long-term contract, earning less annually but with a greater guaranteed sum.
Porzingis is earning just over $30 million this season, and the Hawks are projected to spend around $100 million on Young, Daniels, and Jalen Johnson next season. This makes the prospect of an expensive deal dangerous for Atlanta, as an extension at his current amount would tie up 79% of their cap space in these four players, two of whom have a risky injury history.
However, the Hawks are not in dire financial straits just yet. The squad will almost certainly remain over the cap but below the second apron until Zaccharie Risacher's contract expires in 2028. The cost of an overpay is less impactful for teams in this cap situation, as they cannot use cap space regardless.
Porzingis's "prove it" deal could be a two-year maximum extension. This would expire at the same time as Risacher's, allowing the Hawks to plan extensions for the two highly-touted European prospects. The Hawks will have the Bird rights of both players, making any extension possible. If Porzingis can remain healthy, he would probably earn the long-term contract he is looking for.
If he misses large stretches of the regular or postseason, however, he may lose money on this gamble. He would need about the full Mid-Level exception over two years to equal a long-term contract at a lower salary. This is not a guarantee for Porzingis, who will enter the 2028-29 season at 33 years old.
While this move would paralyze the Hawks from a roster-building perspective, this is acceptable considering where the franchise is. The squad is mostly complete, with a deep rotation full of young talent. Any further additions to the team can be acquired for a minimum contract, which the Hawks are allowed to use. Atlanta would have two years to evaluate if this version of the Hawks is good enough or if a significant move must be made.
Alternatively, the two could sign a four-year deal below what Porzingis could demand. If Porzingis finds the prospect of betting on his health too risky, he could secure more guaranteed money by taking a long-term deal earning between $20 and $27 million. This is lower-risk for the Hawks as well, as if the Hawks find the need to move on from Porzingis, this contract should be easily tradeable for a starting-level player.
Regardless of which route the two take, negotiations will truly begin January 7th when the Hawks can officially offer the long-term option to Porzingis. Don't be alarmed when the two sides haven't agreed to a deal by New Year's Day.