Trae Young has been blamed for the poor performance from the Atlanta Hawks in December, but Kristaps Porzingis instantly proved that this isn’t the case in his long-awaited return to action.
As the leader of the team, there is an inherent expectation that Young should magically solve any troubles on the team. But in the modern NBA, stars don’t automatically win games – the failed “big three” in Phoenix served as proof.
Atlanta has struggled over the past month because of their defense and rebounding, not their offense. In fact, since Young’s return, Atlanta has had two games with a below-average offensive rating. One of these came when Young was resting, the other when he had a 30-point game on just 16 shot attempts. Trae’s job is to run the offense, and he’s done just that in his six-game revenge tour.
Atlanta is losing despite Young’s performance
The reason Atlanta is losing is simple: the Hawks haven’t had their center. The club will end December with a 3-11 record for the month, but they are 1-1 in games Porzingis plays.
The stats support this interpretation of Atlanta’s losing streak: the Hawks maintained an above-average defensive rating just 4 times this month (28.5% of games). The source of their porous defense was the paint, where teams scored far too frequently and efficiently. Despite a quietly improved effort on the glass, the hole in the middle of the defense was too great to overcome.
On New Year’s Eve against Minnesota, however, Porzingis proved there is no need to panic. With KP manning the post for just 17 minutes, the Hawks’ infamously weak December defense solved itself instantly. The Timberwolves were held to a 12th percentile offensive rating, shot a 17th percentile 52% at the rim, and lost the rebounding battle. As you would expect, the Hawks cruised to an easy win despite Young being unavailable.
Some will try to convince you that Young is the heart of the Hawks’ defensive problems, but this simply isn’t true. Atlanta’s defensive decline is much more closely correlated to Porzingis than Young, both in date and by virtue of just being a center. The position is inherently the most important on the defense due to the length and rebounding centers bring to the table. Young’s defensive woes are frustrating, yes, but they are much less meaningful than Porzingis’s potential impact lost to injury.
This isn't to say Porzingis is at fault for the Hawks' losing streak; rather, the lack of a center is the root of the problem. The Celtics won a championship with Porzingis because they had two more playoff-caliber centers behind him. If Porzingis missed time, the Celtics would be fine.
The Hawks controversially declined to acquire an established third-string center, and they are now experiencing the consequences of that decision. N'Faly Dante's ACL tear exacerbated this issue, but there is no indication that Quin Snyder planned to play him anyway.
The future of this team in the short term is clear: Young mans the halfcourt offense, Porzingis (or another center) mans the paint defense, and Jalen Johnson does a little bit of everything. Trading Young is not going to win the Hawks games – solving the hole at center is.