Jalen Johnson is no longer the prospect who teams passed on in the 2021 NBA Draft, not because of his talent, but because of narratives around his attitude and health.
All of that is notable because his counterpart on Thursday, Chicago Bulls 4-man Patrick Williams, has a strikingly opposite story. Like Johnson, Williams was also a one-and-done in college at Florida State.
But Williams completed his season whereas Johnson left Duke early following an injury.
As the two players, central to the respective outlooks for their teams, meet, the differences between them are revealing about the evaluation process.
Jalen Johnson vs Patrick Williams a study in ceiling vs floor
Williams started 29 games to Johnson’s 13. But the latter drew eight starts in his polarizing campaign with the Blue Devils. Williams was a sixth man for the Seminoles, yet his skill set combined with a “clean” narrative led the Bulls to make him a surprising No. 4 pick in 2020.
Johnson slid to the Hawks at No. 20 overall, both a blessing and telling marker of how narratives can shape prospects’ futures in the league before they ever see the floor.
The Bulls have rejected trading Williams for years.
They signed him to a five-year, $90 million contract extension, which is in line with Hawks forward De’Andre Hunter – whose career arc also screams the same point. Williams’ career-high points per game for a season? 10.2, which he set in 2022-23.
Johnson, meanwhile, is working on a 19.4 PPG, 10.1 RPG double-double campaign and pushing for an All-Star appearance in Year 4.
Year 5 for Williams has the same inconsistencies and injury issues he has always faced.
Hunter, of course, serves as a reminder of how patience can pay with prospects. The No. 4 pick in 2019, is averaging a career-high 20.1 PPG. But he has also found his stride as a sixth man – not the role the Bulls drafted Williams for, but perhaps the one he remains best suited for.
Hunter has also always been a more aggressive scorer than Williams, who has only seen a slight increase in his attempts per game this season despite DeMar DeRozan being gone.
Johnson’s is not a typical case, to be sure.
But Williams – and, for better or worse, Hunter, who was selected by the Lakers but traded to the Hawks immediately – also show how teams can overthink things in the draft. Instead of taking the most talented player, fit or, even worse, narratives become law and that is bad.
Teams cannot win without talent, no matter how good their fit or chemistry may be. Only after acquiring the requisite talent should front offices be concerned with fine-tuning.
Too often front offices are beholden to coaches and playing styles rather than the players.
If a front office or coaching staff feels they cannot handle a talented player who has red flags – within reason, of course, as Johnson did – that says more about the staff in place than the 19 or 20-year-old prospect who would be in their charge.
Key date for Onyeka Okongwu in return from injury
Both the Hawks and Bulls enter this contest with injury concerns. For the Hawks, Trae Young and Bogdan Bogdanovic are both listed as questionable. Young is dealing with a heel contusion he seemed to aggravate against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Bogdanovic sat out that game and is still dealing with the ailment – a leg contusion – that sidelined him.
The Hawks are also missing Onyeka Okongwu and Kobe Bufkin.
This is a key date for Okongwu, who was expected to miss this game but is set to be re-evaluated with knee inflammation, which has kept him out of the last three contests. His return would be a big boost for a scrappy Hawks group off the bench.
It would also allow the Hawks to trade Clint Capela, as they are rumored to be seeking before the February 6 deadline.
Bulls banged up too
The Bulls are notably without guard Lonzo Ball. Ball made his return to the court from a two-plus season absence with a knee issue that required a rare ligament transplant. He was a guest on Trae Young’s “From The Point” podcast, discussing his journey to recovery.
The Bulls could also be without 2024 offseason trade acquisition Josh Giddey and noted Hawks/Young pest, Ayo Dosunmu, both of whom are listed as questionable for the game.
We also might not get a battle of rookie first-round picks, with Matas Buzelis questionable.
Buzelis was the No. 11 overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, and he notably challenged Hawks rookie and No. 1 overall pick Zaccharie Risacher to play him 1-on-1. Buzelis is 2-0 against Risacher and the Hawks in his career.
He did not score in the first meeting but had 9 points, 4 boards, 2 blocks, and 1 steal in the second.
Risacher went from a 17-point, 2-board, 2-block effort in Game 1 to a 4-1-1 line with 1 steal in Game 2, also seeing his playing time fall from 30 minutes to 15-plus. Neither player enters riding much of a hot streak scoring the ball but both do other things well.