Keaton Wagler, as a freshman, has fought, scratched, and clawed his Fighting Illini to an unlikely Final Four appearance.
The 3-seeded Illinois roster wasn't a lock for the Final Four. Sharing a fourth of the bracket with 1-seeded Florida (the defending champs) and 2-seeded Houston (whom many argued should have been a 1 seed themselves), Illinois wasn't penciled in to be in the Final Four by many.
Keaton Wagler is a gargantuan reason why they've been able to defy the odds, and he's been carrying the Illini in the very same fashion he's done all year: a tight handle, crafty finishing, and a truly, truly elite high-volume 3-ball.
Currently, the Hawks own the rights to the better of the New Orleans Pelicans and Milwaukee Bucks' first round pick in a deep 2026 NBA Draft class. Without movement up or down, at present, the Hawks will pick 7th: exactly where Wagler is mocked in the draft.
Despite the raw talent equating to where Atlanta currently sits, just how good of a fit is the crafty freshman with the current Hawks roster?
The state of Atlanta's current backcourt rotation
As Hawks fans are well aware, the dynamic defensive duo of Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker has been stifling lead guards who face the Hawks night in and night out throughout the 2025-2026 NBA season.
CJ McCollum has thrived as a direct result of their presence in the Hawks' starting "death lineup" that also boasts MVP-caliber Jalen Johnson and the bouncy Onyeka Okongwu in the frontcourt. Despite Wagler being 3" taller than McCollum, it's not a far cry to see him as the heir apparent to CJ in Atlanta.
While McCollum may yet stick around with the Hawks for the long haul, he's undoubtedly past his elite days with the Trail Blazers and on his way out of the league in the next half-decade. Sure, that's a long time - until you consider the rest of the Hawks' core will likely be hitting (or just barely leaving) their prime around the same time.
Keaton Wagler's similarities to CJ McCollum
Wagler plays much like a large version of McCollum, who is ridiculously shifty off the dribble, crafty with his finishes around the rim, and most importantly, is a lights-out high-volume 3-point shooter.
Wagler has shot the triple at just north of a 40% clip during his freshman season with Illinois on six attempts per game, rarified air at such a young age. This doesn't even begin to describe the shot diet Wagler has given Fighting Illini fans to use throughout the year, often consisting of multiple off-dribble, multiple-feet-behind-the-line-type shots.
Wagler's defense must unfortunately also be mentioned, as he's not exactly an elite defender. While his IQ has allowed him to nab his fair share of steals throughout the season (averaging 0.9 steals per game), it's his athleticism that limits him here.
Wagler hasn't dunked the ball once this season. As a result, his athleticism has been called into question, typified by a comical missed open dunk on his only attempt this year. Standing 6'6, this is more than slightly concerning.
With that in mind, Wagler's weaknesses, just like McCollum's, would be hidden away rather than magnified should he luck his way into sharing a backcourt already boasting the defensive duo of Dyson Daniels and Nickeil Alexander-Walker.
All told, Wagler's enticing 3-level scoring, budding playmaking, competent defense, and plus size at the point guard position all lead to his status as the mocked 7th pick in a loaded 2026 NBA draft class, and the Hawks would be thrilled if he fell to them at such a position this summer.