The Atlanta Hawks are still a move away from true championship contention, and Luke Kennard’s contract will help them make that move.
The Hawks have too many weaknesses on this roster to be legit contenders, the most pressing of which being their lack of physicality down low. The squad is a bottom-four defensive rebounding team and a bottom-seven offensive rebounding team, and they allow the fifth-most shots at the rim.
GM Onsi Saleh understands this team is not complete. After all, he has refused to re-sign Trae Young or Kristaps Porzingis while he takes stock of the talent on this team. Whatever direction he decides is correct for Atlanta, however, will be enabled by the Kennard contract.
Kennard signed a 1-year, $11 million contract, which many considered an overpay. While the critics are right – Kennard’s contract is an overpay in a vacuum – the NBA exists in a complex landscape. Kennard’s expiring contract is actually a good contract for teams to trade for, assuming they can fit his salary. He is a fun player who provides any team with an instant offensive boost. If his new suitors like his fit on the team, they can opt to extend him. If not, he will be gone in six months anyway.
Kennard will be used as matching salary this season
The Hawks don’t have many obvious salary matches for a trade. At the star level, Trae Young and Kristaps Porzingis provide contracts of approximately $45 million and $30 million, respectively, to send back. But the Hawks have their star trio. What they need are more high-level role players to round out their rotation.
Below the star level, Kennard is the only player making over $3.5 million who is not overperforming their contract. Sure, the Hawks could trade Nickeil Alexander-Walker or Onyeka Okongwu, but neither would make sense in a trade for the Hawks, barring a serious overpay from a potential suitor.
The Hawks are under the apron, so for any team not involving Young or Porzingis, they can return up to 7.5 million above the outgoing salary in a trade. In Kennard’s case, this caps his trade value at 18.5 million (which could increase if multiple players are traded).
Players in this salary range include Norm Powell from Miami, Collin Gillespie and Mark Williams from Phoenix, Mike Conley and Donte DiVincenzo from Minnesota, and Jabari Smith Jr. and Aaron Holiday. Some of these trades would require draft capital to be swapped, either to or from Atlanta depending on the move.
Whether you like or dislike any of the Kennard trades I suggested, the point remains that the Hawks are almost certainly going to make a move this season, and that Kennard is the obvious choice of outgoing salary. Whether it's to move off a star or to bolster the squad beneath their stars, this season is the last year they are guaranteed to be below the first apron. Dyson Daniels will receive an $18 million pay raise next offseason, and Young and Porzingis are due for extensions as well.
Let us hope Saleh can continue his masterful run as GM and launch the franchise on a path to contention with the inevitable Kennard trade.