Atlanta Hawks guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker has been playing and producing like a star throughout the 2025-26 season. If you let the skeptics tell the story, however, it's simply a matter of early-season success that's destined to peter out as he plays more games and the truth about him is revealed.
As Alexander-Walker reaches the quarter-mark of the 2025-26 season, however, he isn't slowing down—and the critics are beginning to eat their words.
Alexander-Walker has appeared in 20 of a possible 22 games for the Hawks this season, thus carving out a larger sample size than some have implied. It started out poorly, as he shot just 2-of-15 from the field in the opener and went 1-of-10 from beyond the arc the next time out.
Since the first two games of the season, however, Alexander-Walker has recorded averages of 21.0 points, 3.5 assists, 3.4 rebounds, 0.9 blocks, 0.9 steals, and 3.0 three-point field goals made per game on .487/.422/.857 shooting.
It's still early in December, meaning Alexander-Walker has a long way to go before consistency is truly established. What he's managed through the first quarter of the 2025-26 season, however, is nothing short of shocking from both individual and team-fit perspectives.
Perhaps Alexander-Walker will come back down to earth at some point in time, but it's becoming impossible to ignore how consistently he's playing at his current level.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker consistently thriving with 20-game sample size
Alexander-Walker isn't averaging 20.4 points per game by virtue of a disproportionate number of monster scoring performances. He's been remarkably consistent in that phase of the game, offering Atlanta a dependable scoring option in multiple roles.
That's evident in the numbers, as Alexander-Walker has scored at least 30 points in three games and has reached or surpassed 20 in 10.
Alexander-Walker has scored at least 16 points in 16 of his 20 appearances and has reached double figures in 19 of his 20 showings. The lone exception was an eight-point performance on Nov. 25, which he followed by scoring 30, 34, and 26 points across his next three games respectively.
Furthermore, each of Alexander-Walker's 10 20-point games have occurred over his past 15 appearances—a remarkably consistent success rate.
For those fearing that a 15-game leap is unsustainable, Alexander-Walker scored at least 17 points in each of the four games that preceded the 15-game stretch. In other words: His leap wasn't from a low amount to 20, but a reasonable leap from 17.8 points per game to 21.7 during the aforementioned timeframes.
It's certainly a colossal step forward from averaging 13.4 points per 36 minutes in 2024-25, but he's also in a different role than when he played alongside multiple ball-dominant players in Minnesota.
In addition to stepping up as a scorer, Alexander-Walker has fit in seamlessly with the Hawks' starting five of the future. The five-man lineup of Alexander-Walker, Dyson Daniels, Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu, and Zaccharie Risacher is excelling on both ends of the floor and outscoring opponents by 5.2 points per 100 possessions.
Skeptics continue to await Alexander-Walker's decline, but it's looking more evident by the day that he's made a sincere leap with the Hawks in 2025-26.