'Hot take' prediction for Jalen Johnson could prove costly for Hawks

One of, if not the biggest lingering question marks for the Atlanta Hawks is Jalen Johnson’s looming contract situation. 

The longer the Hawks wait, the higher Johnson’s final number could climb.

He took a significant leap last season but was interrupted by injuries. Johnson is healthy now and Bleacher Report’s Eric Pincus offered a “hot take” prediction that the youngster will deliver on the promise he showed last season.

“The Atlanta Hawks face a big decision before the season with forward Jalen Johnson, who is extension-eligible. The team can wait until he's a restricted free agent next season, but he is primed for a big season ahead,” Pincus wrote on September 26. “Johnson jumped from 5.6 points a game in 2022-23 to 16.0 last season. That trend will continue as he leaps into the 20-point scorer category and the Hawks' best frontcourt player paired with guard Trae Young.

“For his efforts, Johnson will earn the NBA's Most Improved Player award and a significant pay hike (perhaps why the Hawks should get a deal done before he blows up even further).”

Potential Jalen Johnson breakout a double-edged sword for Hawks

Johnson was a contender, if not a favorite, for the award in 2023-24 before injuries hit.

It is not that paying Johnson would be a negative. He has the physical profile and skill set of a player teams covet in the league now. He has also shown the kind of work ethic to instill confidence that he will continue to improve.

“I expected it because I knew the work I put in,” Johnson told reporters on media day. “None of that was a surprise to me as far as just knowing what I'm capable of. Now I'm not saying as far as all the points and all that. A lot of that comes with just offense and within the game. So it just – it felt good to go out there and just show what I'm capable to do; at least you know a part of it.

“I'm excited to continue to build, continue to get better for this year. Just keep keep proving people.”

Hawks' Jalen Johnson can improve in 2 critical areas

At 22 years old and with all he has shown already, Johnson is only scratching the surface of what he is capable of. There is a major caveat, though. Everything Johnson has shown has come in stretches. 

And while some of them have been longer than others, he has to prove a consistent contributor on the floor which starts by staying on the floor.

Johnson can also help by taking a step up defensively as Hawks head coach Quin Snyder said.

“I think [I can improve and make an impact on] defense,” Johnson said. “I'm willing to take those challenges. I understand it's more of a mindset thing with the defensive end. The offensive end comes easy. But the defense, you just got to lock in and be willing to take those challenges, especially guarding the forwards every night.

“I'm looking forward to that. Coach is going to hold me accountable, my teammates are going to hold me accountable, and I'm going to hold myself accountable on the defensive end this year.”

Conversations around Johnson’s projected contract value – between $125 million and $150 million – will certainly trend toward the latter if he can indeed stay on the floor and continue to ascend as he already has.

Johnson said he believes he has found a show with the ankle support he needs to avoid the issues he ran into last season.

That could be bad news for the rest of the league and a price the Hawks will gladly pay.