In case you have not heard, the NBA’s trade deadline is on February 6, and the Quin-Snyder-led Atlanta Hawks are once again a team mired in speculation.
Injuries have created a need for some of their potential trade candidates. But the Hawks also remain stuck in mediocrity, on track for a third straight Play-In Tournament appearance. If they do not turn things around soon, tough decisions will need to be made.
Here are three tell-tale signs it is time to make at least a slight pivot.
1) The Standings
This seems obvious, but we are still early enough in the season that there can be less of a gap between the top teams and those on the other end than later in the year. The Hawks are a terrific example of that, sitting as the No. 7 seed in the Eastern Conference.
However, they are just 2.5 games back of the Orlando Magic – whose top two players are sidelined by injuries – for the No. 4 seed.
They are equidistant from the No. 11 seed and the Philadelphia 76ers.
One solid winning streak could do wonders for the Hawks, but extending their losing streak much further could derail them. That is why their current road trip has been so disappointing. The Hawks are 1-3, with all three losses coming to Western Conference teams.
They are 5-11 versus the West this season. They still have two more games on this road trip, and four more against West teams.
However, they will have six straight and nine out of 10 games against East teams after that.
If this group wants to stay together, they must hold the line until that stretch and capitalize. The Hawks have several veterans who could be of interest closer to the deadline, but holding off makes sense with the standings so close.
2) Hawks Pop In The Clutch
The Hawks are in a seven-team tie with 18 “clutch” games – defined by NBA.com as within 5 points in the final five minutes – this season. They also have the fourth-best winning percentage in those games.
Their average margin of defeat is 13.3 points.
Their average margin of victory is 7.2 PPG. Their .500 record makes for an apples-to-apples comparison in terms of sample size.
Being good in the clutch is not inherently a positive indicator. But all five of the top teams in clutch win percentage in 2023-24 made the playoffs. And the Boston Celtics, who won the NBA Finals last season, finished with the fourth-best clutch winning percentage.
The Hawks have shown they can hang with the big dogs, their problem is the also-rans.
The Hawks are 13-12 against teams with a record of .500 or better this season, a slight but notable edge over their 5-6 mark against teams with losing records.
There are two takeaways there: 1) the Hawks have had a really tough schedule to this point of the season and 2) they cannot lose to sub-par teams and expect to be anything better than mediocre.
3) What’s the Difference?
Part of the reason the Hawks have been in so many clutch games is that they have struggled to overpower teams with their offense. Their defensive rating ranks 20th, the highest it has since their surprise run to the Eastern Conference Finals in 2020-21.
However, their offensive rating ranks 19th. That is their lowest mark since the 2019-20 season when they finished the season 20-47.
They are already close to their win total from that season, so that is not the issue.
The issue is this Hawks team is at least living dangerously and, at worst, overperforming. Hawks general manager Landry Fields and the rest of the front office, along with head coach Quin Snyder, must determine which it is and if they can sustain either.
The Hawks have been outscored by an average of 2.6 points per game. Injuries to Trae Young and others have played a significant part in their effectiveness on the court.
But that too has been a feature of these Hawks rather than a bug.