The Atlanta Hawks now have the best odds at the first overall pick after a five-game losing streak by the New Orleans Pelicans.
Atlanta committed highway robbery when they traded the 13th pick (Derik Queen) for the 23rd pick (Asa Newell) and a 2026 NOP/MIL pick swap. Queen’s hot start to his rookie season masks just how catastrophic a trade this was for the Pelicans.
The Atlanta Hawks won last offseason
New Orleans is in no position to win any time soon. They are led by the injury-prone Zion Williamson and former Hawk Dejounte Murray, who has yet to play this season after tearing his Achilles last year. Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones are exciting wings, but they alone cannot carry this team to glory.
It was clear as day that the Pelicans would be a bad team this season. After a five-game losing streak, the club holds the second-best lottery odds as of today. This would grant Atlanta a 52.1% chance at a top-four pick, a 14.0% chance at the #1 spot, and a worst-case scenario of the sixth draft spot.
To make matters even better for Atlanta, the Milwaukee Bucks have also floundered this season. When they cut Damian Lillard and signed Myles Turner in free agency, the league assumed the Bucks would attempt to be competitive this season. Despite their best efforts, however, Milwaukee has not been competitive this season.
With Giannis Antetokounmpo on the floor, the Bucks have a respectable 11-9 record – a 45-win pace. Without the two-time MVP, they are 3-11 – an 18-win pace. After an eight-game stretch without Antetokounmpo, the Bucks have slid to 11th in the East.
This gives Milwaukee’s pick the 10th-best lottery seed. Because the Hawks get the better pick, the probability of Atlanta receiving the first overall pick is 16.5% – the best odds in the league.
The only downside is that, because they don't have their pick, New Orleans isn't concerned with tanking. While the rest of the lottery teams look to trade and tank their way to the bottom, the Pelicans will be trying their hardest to win. After all, if this pick is a top pick, it’ll be much harder to justify the trade in hindsight.
Still, it is hard to imagine a world where either team improves their outcome significantly. The Eastern Conference is not as weak as previously believed, meaning the Bucks cannot avoid the Play-In with Giannis alone. The Pelicans have no path to real improvement going forward.
Barring a blockbuster trade, Atlanta will get the chance to add a franchise-changing talent to their squad.