The Atlanta Hawks signed Dyson Daniels to a four-year, $100 million extension today, locking down one of the team’s key rotation pieces for the foreseeable future. This comes less than three hours before the 6:00 Eastern deadline for an extension to be made.
Daniels was part of the return package from the New Orleans Pelicans for Dejounte Murray. After two mediocre seasons in the bayou, he was seen as an intriguing young asset but probably a bench player on a playoff team. Daniels surpassed all expectations last season, however, winning Most Improved Player and finishing second in Defensive Player of the Year voting.
After proving himself as the best perimeter defender in the league and a competent offensive player, Daniels was due for a major pay day this offseason. As moves around the league took place, most notably Keegan Murray’s five-year, $140 million extension, the extension market appeared to change in favor of Daniels. However, the Hawks managed to retain their star defender for an astonishingly low price tag.
Below are the grade, contract details, and comparable players for Daniels’ high, medium, and low-end outcomes over this contract. Also included are some of the other members of the 2022 draft class who have received extensions thus far.
Grade: A - The Hawks got an absolute bargain. While there is risk as Daniels has a small sample of just one high-level season, players of his caliber usually earn $5 million more annually. This deal would have rose to an A+ if a team option or fifth year were attached, but overall it was an excellent piece of business from the franchise.
Details: 4 years, $100 million. Average annual value (AAV): $25 million.
Player comps:
Ceiling: Jrue Holiday - 4 years, $134 million; AAV: $33.6 million
Realistic: Derrick White - 4 years, $118 million; AAV: $29.5 million
Floor: Josh Hart - 4 years, $81 million; AAV: $20.2 million
2022 Draft class:
Keegan Murray - 5 years, $140 million; AAV: $28 million
Christian Braun - 5 years, $125 million; AAV $25 million
Jabari Smith Jr. - 5 years, $122 million; AAV: $24.6 million
Daniels almost perfectly splits the difference between his floor of Hart and realistic outcome of White. Compared to his draft class, he and Braun earn comfortably less than Murray but slightly more than Smith Jr. If it wasn’t obvious this contract was an absolute steal, perhaps a closer examination of how Daniels compares to these players can illustrate.
Jrue Holiday is the player Daniels strives to be. As the best guard defender in the league for the better part of a decade, he immediately brought championship glory to the last two teams to trade for him, the Boston Celtics and Milwakuee Bucks. While Daniels’ defense compares to Holiday’s, the latter was a true star on the offensive end that is an unlikely outcome for the young Hawk. He isn’t quite the level of player who immediately elevates a playoff team to an NBA champion.
Derrick White is a realistic outcome for Daniels. While White is a significantly better shooter than Daniels, he doesn’t have the slashing or playmaking juice the Atlanta star does. Daniels, however, is a better defender than White, who peaked at an All-Defensive second team level. If White or Daniels is one of your two worst starters, your team is in great shape, and to get this level of player for $25 million annually is a bargain.
Josh Hart’s peak was a step below Daniels’ performance last season, representing an example of what the Hawks’ newly-extended man could be if he regresses. Hart is clearly a negative on offense in a playoff setting, with a lower scoring volume and three point percentage than Daniels. He still brings a high-level playoff impact, however, by virtue of his stout defense, intellegent playmaking, and otherworldly rebounding. If Daniels fell to Hart's level, his contract would be considered a manageable overpay.
Daniels is better than Murray, Braun, and Smith Jr. and is clearly on the best contract for their team. He is already better than Hart and should reach White’s output by the end of this contract. This contract was an unbelievable steal for the Hawks, whose books remain free of risky long-term deals.
Onsi Saleh has done the impossible once again.