The Atlanta Hawks’ legendary 2026 draft asset became much more intriguing after Giannis Antetokounmpo suffered a calf injury on Friday night (subscription required). In a postgame presser, the two-time MVP explained that he expects to miss the next 4-6 weeks due to his familiarity with NBA injury management protocols.
Antetokounmpo has been one of the sole bright spots for the Milwaukee Bucks in what has otherwise been a disastrous season for the 2021 champions. The franchise made a series of win-now moves this offseason, including stretching Damian Lillard’s contract to make room for Myles Turner in free agency.
Despite ostensibly trying to compete, Milwaukee is firmly under .500 at 18-26, currently 11th in the East and 9th in lottery odds. To make matters even worse for Milwaukee, the team is only 15-15 when Giannis plays. This team had little hope of being competitive, even with their star player. Without him, they are doomed.
Atlanta stands to benefit from Milwaukee’s struggles
The Hawks hold the rights to the first round pick swap between New Orleans and Milwaukee this season. While we have often assumed the Pelicans' pick would be the superior draft asset, the Bucks could race to the bottom of the lottery with their current roster configuration.
The team is 3-11 when Antetokounmpo sits. Assuming he misses five weeks – the middle ground of his self-reported timeline – he’ll miss 15 games total. If we multiply the team’s 21.4% win percentage without their star by these 15 games, Milwaukee is on track to go 3-12. This would give the squad a 35.6% record (21-38).
A 35.6% record would give Milwaukee the seventh-best lottery odds in the league. When you pair this with the Pelicans' pick, which currently holds the second-best lottery odds, Atlanta would have a whopping 21.5% chance at the first overall pick. For context, the Wizards (who hold the top lottery odds) have only a 14% chance. Even better, the Hawks would be guaranteed a top-six pick in the draft thanks to the Pelicans.
Milwaukee is also missing Kevin Porter Jr., who has thrived this season, due to an oblique injury. Just a day before Antetokounmpo went down, Doc Rivers stated Porter won’t return "any time soon," and that there is no official timetable for the USC product.
The Bucks’ two best players are both out. It is hard to imagine a world where the franchise can climb up the standings after such a turbulent season, both on and off the court. And with each Milwaukee loss, Atlanta inches closer to finally acquiring its superstar of the future.