After acquiring Kristaps Porzingis, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Luke Kennard for pennies on the dollar, pundits agreed that the Hawks had one of the best offseasons in the NBA. However, DraftKings seems to have overlooked the Hawks' offseason after setting the betting line for the Hawks' wins at 46.5, only 6.5 higher than last season's total.
The Hawks didn't just upgrade the talent on their roster; they built a cohesive team with an identity. Alexander-Walker is the perfect player to imitate Dyson Daniel's defensive production off the bench. Porzingis adds size as a rim protector and an elite pick-and-pop option for Trae Young. Kennard is one of the league's premier shooting threats, solving the Hawks' questionable spacing from last season.
Despite losing rising star Jalen Johnson to a season-ending injury midway through the season, the Hawks still won 40 games in a competitive Eastern Conference. Johnson is one of the league's best slashing threats and possesses an offensive skillset that perfectly complements Young's game.
After three East giants fell to injuries in the 2025 playoffs, the conference is wide open. Considering the upgraded roster, Johnson's missed time, and the landscape of the East, winning only 47 games to hit the over would be a disappointment for the Hawks.
The bookies disrespected Atlanta's offseason with this line
For reference, the season win total of 46.5 is five games less than the line set for the Orlando Magic, who finished only one game ahead of Atlanta last season. It is true that the Magic also had a successful offseason, adding much-needed shooting with Desmond Bane. Orlando also has a key player returning from injury in Jalen Suggs.
Bane will not solve the Magic's lack of depth, however, and Suggs's return to the lineup is not as impactful as Johnson's. The Hawks' bench is better than some starting lineups, boasting a plethora of talented two-way players. On the contrary, the Magic will be forced to rely heavily on the unproven Anthony Black and Tristan Da Silva.
Perhaps there is an argument that the Magic could be better, but certainly not a full five games better.
This is not betting advice; the NBA is an unpredictable league. The fall of the Celtics, Bucks, and Pacers demonstrates that fortune can dramatically shift in an instant. However, barring major injuries, the 46.5-win line is a slap in the face to a Hawks front office that assembled one of the best and most well-rounded 8-man rotations in the league.