Atlanta Hawks Locked Into 4th-Best Lottery Odds If Season’s Over

Atlanta Hawks 2019 NBA Draft (Photo by Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images)
Atlanta Hawks 2019 NBA Draft (Photo by Gary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images) /

Looking at the Atlanta Hawks’ lottery odds if the season ended today.

The Atlanta Hawks sit with a 20-47 record during the NBA’s suspended season. That is the league’s fourth-worst record, but if you look at it with a glass half full, that’ll give the Hawks the fourth-best lottery odds if play doesn’t resume.

With the reformed odds that came into effect last season, that doesn’t give them as good as chance for the #1 pick it did in year’s past, but they’ll still have a 12.5 percent chance of winning it. With the top three teams (Golden State, Cleveland, Minnesota) all sharing a 14 percent chance, the Hawks would technically have the second-best odds to win.

In total, their range of picks could be anywhere from 1-8, which their most likely landing spot being the sixth pick. Full list of odds are below:

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  • 1st: 12.5%
  • 2nd: 12.2%
  • 3rd: 11.9%
  • 4th: 11.5%
  • 5th: 7.2%
  • 6th: 25.7%
  • 7th: 16.7%
  • 8th: 2.2%

Combined, they’ll have a 36.6 percent chance for a top three pick, but a 44.6 percent chance of falling out of the top five. Last year, the Hawks came into lottery night with the fifth-best odds, but fell to the eighth pick, which was the second lowest spot they could have landed.

The New Orleans Pelicans won the first pick (and Zion Williamson) with just six percent odds last year, and the Lakers moved into the top four despite have less than a 10 percent chance of doing so. That Lakers’ pick ended up becoming the Hawks’, which they took De’Andre Hunter with.

This year the Hawks will have much left draft capital than they did in the past two seasons, and after their first round pick will have to wait until the late second round to make their next selection. They own the Rockets’ second round pick, which is currently slated at 52nd overall.

Of course, this is all only true if the NBA doesn’t resume play. The Hawks had 15 games left of the schedule, and a streaky finish — whether that be hot or cold — would have changed the odds.

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For now however the Atlanta Hawks are locked into the fourth best lottery odds, one slot up from last season.

For more on the Atlanta Hawks throughout this suspension and into the off-season, keep it here.